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Western Victoria Region

Incumbents:

PARTY NAME BASED IN
Liberal Simon Ramsay Geelong
Labor Jaala Pulford Ballarat
Liberal Josh Morris Ballarat
Labor Gayle Tierney Geelong
Vote 1 Local Jobs James Purcell (not standing for re-election) Port Fairy

Region Profile:

The Western Victoria Region consists of the electorates of Bellarine, Buninyong, Geelong, Lara, Lowan, Melton, Polwarth, Ripon, South Barwon, South-West Coast and Wendouree.

The big population centres within this region are the City of Greater Geelong and the City of Bellarat. Melton, Warrnambool and the Surf Coast regions also constitute significant population centres. Manufacturing, agriculture of numerous kinds, tourism, energy production and services remain the dominant economic drivers in this region; while emerging sectors including information technology and digital media and the knowledge economy are increasing in importance.

Declared 2018 Candidates:

PARTY/TICKET NAME/S
Animal Justice Party
  • 1. Andy Meddick
  • 2. Jen Gamble
Democratic Labour Party - DLP
  • 1. Frances Beaumont
  • 2. Christian Schultink
Derryn Hinch's Justice Party
  • 1. Stuart Grimley [1]
Labor
  • 1. Jaala Pulford
  • 2. Gayle Tierney
Liberal/The Nationals
  • 1. Bev McArthur (LIB)
  • 2. Josh Morris (LIB)
  • 3. Jo Armstrong (NAT)
  • 4. Andrew Black (NAT)
Australian Greens Victoria
  • 1. Lloyd Davies
Reason
  • 1. Liam Hastie
  • 2. Michael Bell
Sustainable Australia
  • 1. Richard Belcher
Victorian Socialists
  • 1. Tim Gooden
  • 2. Nada Iskra
Ungrouped
  • Ian Whalley (former Labor, former Nationals)

Prediction:

Labor - 2.
Liberal/Nationals - 2.
final seat - tossup between third Liberal/Nationals, Greens and a right-leaning minor party.

The first two seats are safe for each of the two main parties, and the third seat is safe for the Liberal Party. The fourth seat is reasonably safe for the Labor Party. Effectively, the only seat in play in Western Victoria, in 2018, is the last seat - currently held by James Purcell who was successfully elected on a small primary vote on the back of a large flow of preferences.

The combined 'other right leaning' vote outweighed that of the combined 'other left leaning' vote, which is what saw the Greens miss out in 2014. The Greens will be wanting to make amends for their loss, but they will need to significantly increase their primary vote if they are to succeed, which is already a fair way behind and they have also left it very late to announce their candidate and start active campaigning. It seems unlikely that James Purcell will succeed a second time, unless if he too were to significantly increase his primary vote, which also seems unlikely to happen.

Assuming a swing away from Labor and a swing towards the Liberals from 2014, or the Liberals holding steady, the most likely scenario would see another right leaning minor party taking the last seat in Western Victoria ahead of the Greens or another left leaning minor party.

2014 Results:

Next Page: 2014 Western Victoria Preference Distribution

The first preference results for each party by lower house electorate are listed below. Not sure what party acronym/abbreviation is what? Refer to this list.

WESTERN VICTORIA REGION
First preference vote by Legislative Assembly (lower house) electorate.

SEAT A: PUP B: FFP C: CYC D: VFTW E: ACA F: RUAP G: ASP H: AC I: PPV

J: LIB/NAT
X

Bellarine 2.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 37.3%
Buninyong 2.9% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 2.8% 0.8% 0.4% 31.6%
Geelong 2.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 2.1% 0.7% 0.4% 32.6%
Lara 3.4% 2.4% 0.4% 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 2.6% 1.0% 0.5% 24.0%
Lowan 3.0% 2.7% 0.4% 0.2% 1.6% 0.4% 3.0% 1.1% 0.5% 50.3%
Melton 4.0% 2.4% 0.3% 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 3.1% 0.7% 0.4% 25.7%
Polwarth 2.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.2% 2.3% 0.3% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 45.5%
Ripon 3.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 2.7% 0.8% 0.5% 40.2%
South Barwon 1.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 40.3%
South-West Coast 2.5% 2.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 43.0%
Wendouree 2.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 35.0%
TOTALS 2.7% 2.0% 0.4% 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 2.5% 0.9% 0.4% 37.0%
  K: AJP L: LDP M: SFP N: ALP
O: GRN P: DLP Q: V1LJ
Ungrouped: Gary Manion
Bellarine 1.8% 2.4% 1.5% 36.7% 11.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.02%
Buninyong 1.7% 2.4% 2.8% 37.8% 10.6% 1.9% 0.7% 0.03%
Geelong 2.0% 2.7% 1.5% 38.0% 12.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.01%
Lara 1.9% 2.6% 1.9% 48.4% 6.3% 1.8% 0.8% 0.02%
Lowan 1.4% 2.2% 4.1% 20.4% 6.6% 1.2% 1.0% 0.02%
Melton 2.2% 2.7% 2.5% 43.0% 5.8% 3.4% 0.6% 0.15%
Polwarth 1.2% 2.9% 2.6% 24.5% 10.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.01%
Ripon 1.4% 2.3% 3.2% 33.6% 6.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.02%
South Barwon 2.1% 2.8% 1.1% 31.5% 12.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.02%
South-West Coast 1.2% 3.0% 2.4% 24.2% 8.6% 1.0% 6.5% 0.002%
Wendouree 1.6% 2.5% 1.6% 37.7% 10.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.03%
TOTALS 1.7% 2.6% 2.3% 34.1% 9.2% 1.5% 1.3% 0.03%
Data provided by the VEC.

Next Page: 2014 Western Victoria Preference Distribution

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