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Southern Metropolitan Region

Incumbents:

PARTY NAME BASED IN
Liberal David Davis Surrey Hills (Burwood)
Labor Philip Dalidakis Bentleigh
Liberal Georgie Crozier  
Greens Sue Pennicuik Brighton
Liberal Margaret Fitzherbert Port Melbourne (Albert Park)

Region Profile:

The Southern Metropolitan Region contains the lower house electorates of Albert Park, Bentleigh, Brighton, Burwood, Caulfield, Hawthorn, Kew, Malvern, Oakleigh, Prahran and Sandringham.

This region contains some of Melbourne's most affluent 'blue ribbon' suburbs and accordingly, much of it can be considered Liberal Party heartland. The Greens are also a rising presence in parts of the region.

2018 Candidates:

PARTY/TICKET NAME/S
A: Liberal
  • 1. David Davis
  • 2. Georgie Crozier
  • 3. Margaret Fitzherbert
  • 4. Gavin MacRides
  • 5. Miaosheng Yang
B: Victorian Socialists
  • 1. Catheryne Lewis
  • 2. Ivan Mitchell
C: Australian Liberty Alliance
  • 1. Avi Yemeni
  • 2. Kaylah Jones
D: Health Australia Party
  • 1. Ben Moore
  • 2. Cindy Cerecer
E: Aussie Battler Party
  • 1. Mark Hillard
  • 2. Stacey Wain
F: The Greens
  • 1. Sue Pennicuik'
  • 2. James Earl
  • 3. Rose Read
  • 4. Duncan Forster
  • 5. James Bennett
G: Voluntary Euthanasia Party
  • 1. Jane E. Morris
  • 2. Imelda T. Ryan
H: Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party
  • 1. Nicole Bourman
  • 2. Ryan Lindfors-Beswick
I: Hudson For Northern Victoria
  • 1. Grace Perriam
  • 2. Matthew Perriam
J: Labor
  • 1. Philip Dalidakis
  • 3. Nina Taylor
  • 4. Judith Armstrong
  • 2. Graeme Kendall
  • 5. Danny Bellote
K: Democratic Labour Party
  • 1. Joel van der Horst
  • 2. Lucia De Summa
L: Sustainable Australia
  • 1. Clifford Hayes
  • 2. Cathryn Houghton
M: Reason Party
  • 1. Jill Mellon-Robertson
  • 2. Edmund Munday
N: Derryn Hinch's Justice Party
  • 1. Nikki Nicholls
  • 2. Julie Doidge
O: Animal Justice Party
  1. 1. Ben Schultz
  2. 2. Fiona McRostie
P: Liberal Democratic Party
  • 1. Robert Kennedy
  • 2. Kirsty O'Sullivan
Q: Transport Matters Party
  • 1. Kim Guest
  • 2. Saeed Muhammad
R: Australian Country Party/Give It Back
  • 1. Nicola Clow
  • 2. Michele Mary Armstrong

Prediction:

Liberal - 2, Labor - 1, Greens - 1. Final seat - tossup between Labor and Liberal.

The Southern Metropolitan Region is probably the most straight forward of regional outcomes to predict, with all seats being retained by their respective parties at the 2014 State Election. The first two candidates for the Liberal Party are safe, as is the first candidate for the Labor Party.

The first Greens candidate, with the party sitting just under a quota, is also safe unless the Greens are to endure a large swing against them. If that were to happen, Labor would likely gain that seat.

The third Liberal candidate may find themselves vulnerable if they suffer a large enough swing against them. If that were to happen, the seat would likely be gained by a right-leaning minor party candidate.

2014 Results:

The first preference results for each party by lower house electorate are listed below. Not sure what party acronym/abbreviation is what? Refer to this list.

SOUTHERN METROPOLITAN REGION
First preference vote by Legislative Assembly (lower house) electorate.

SEAT A: AC B: DLP C: LDP D: RUAP E: CYC F: G: GRN
H: PPV I: AJP
Albert Park 0.4% 2.1% 4.2% 0.2% 1.3% 0.1% 18.9% 0.2% 1.9%
Bentleigh 0.6% 2.8% 4.5% 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 10.7% 0.5% 1.5%
Brighton 0.5% 1.6% 5.1% 0.2% 1.8% 0.1% 16.3% 0.2% 1.9%
Burwood 1.2% 2.5% 4.6% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 13.2% 0.2% 1.7%
Caulfield 0.5% 2.0% 4.8% 0.4% 1.0% 0.2% 15.8% 0.3% 1.6%
Hawthorn 0.7% 1.6% 4.0% 0.2% 1.4% 0.4% 18.1% 0.2% 1.4%
Kew 1.1% 2.0% 5.1% 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 14.1% 0.2% 1.2%
Malvern 0.6% 1.5% 4.2% 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 13.6% 0.4% 1.4%
Oakleigh 1.1% 3.9% 4.6% 0.4% 0.9% 0.3% 13.2% 0.3% 1.5%
Prahran 0.4% 2.0% 4.2% 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 22.8% 0.2% 2.1%
Sandringham 0.5% 2.0% 5.1% 0.3% 1.3% 0.1% 13.8% 0.2% 1.9%
TOTALS 0.7% 2.2% 4.6% 0.3% 1.2% 0.2% 15.5% 0.3% 1.7%
  J: ASP K: VEP L: ALP
M: SFP N: FFP O: ACA P: PUP Q: LIB
✓ ✓ ✓
R:
Albert Park 3.0% 0.7% 28.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 36.2% 0.3%
Bentleigh 2.1% 0.6% 33.6% 0.6% 1.0% 0.1% 1.1% 38.7% 0.2%
Brighton 2.4% 0.8% 20.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 46.7% 0.2%
Burwood 2.3% 0.8% 27.8% 0.6% 1.0% 0.1% 1.1% 41.2% 0.2%
Caulfield 2.6% 0.8% 24.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% 44.0% 0.2%
Hawthorn 2.4% 1.0% 20.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.8% 46.5% 0.1%
Kew 2.2% 0.9% 21.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.8% 47.6% 0.1%
Malvern 2.2% 0.9% 18.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 53.3% 0.1%
Oakleigh 2.7% 0.6% 36.0% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 1.3% 31.1% 0.2%
Prahran 2.8% 0.7% 23.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% 38.3% 0.2%
Sandringham 2.1% 0.9% 23.9% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 1.1% 45.3% 0.1%
TOTALS 2.3% 0.8% 25.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.9% 42.7% 0.2%
Data provided by the VEC.