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Seat of Prahran

(Inner Eastern Melbourne)
Marginal. Greens 0.4% (vs Liberal)

Profile:

Prahran is an electorate located in the inner south-east of Melbourne, taking in the suburbs of South Yarra, Prahran and Windsor, as well as parts of Balaclava, St Kilda, St Kilda East and Toorak (west of Orrong Rd). At 12 km², it is the state's smallest electorate.

Tending to be a marginal seat throughout its history, recent elections has seen it become safer for the Liberal Party, owing to the considerable gentrification in the area making the seat more conservative. Labor managed to gain Prahran in the midst of Labor's landslide win across the state in 2002, ending the Liberal Party's 17 year hold on the seat. Labor held the seat for two terms, before it returned to the Liberal Party in 2010. In 2014, however, the Liberal Party was defeated once again, this time by the Greens, who were able to get into second place on minor party preferences in the process of the preference distribution and ultimately going on to gain it on Labor Party preferences.

Incumbent MP:

Sam Hibbins (Greens) - since 2014. Pictured right.

Electorate Boundaries and 2014 Polling Places:

The numbers on the map below represent the two candidate preferred result (percentage) for each polling place in 2014.

Candidates:

Quick Navigation
  Leon Kofmansky DLP
  Katie Allen LIB
  Neil Pharoah ALP
  Sam Hibbins GRN
  Dennis Bilic SUS
  Tom Tomlin RP
  Jennifer Long AJP
  Wendy Patterson ABP
  Alan Menadue Ind

Leon KofmanskyLeon Kofmansky
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Democratic Labour Party

 


Katie AllenKatie Allen
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Liberal.

Katie Allen is a doctor and medical researcher. She has spent the past 25 years working as a paediatrician at the Royal Children's Hospital and as a medical researcher at the Murdoch Children's Research Institute. She grew up in the country, before attending boarding school in South Yarra. A Stonnington local for over 40 years, Katie is involved in a number of community and school groups, including serving as Chairman of the Melbourne Girls Grammar School Council and as a Director of Cabrini Health.


Neil PharaohNeil Pharaoh
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Labor.

Neil Pharoah was the Labor endorsed candidate for the seat of Prahran at the 2014 State Election.


Sam HibbinsSam Hibbins
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Greens (Incumbent MP)

Sam Hibbins has been the member for Prahran since the 2014 Victorian State Election and is the Victorian Greens spokesperson for Transport, Integrity & Anti-Corruption and LGBTI Equality.


Dennis BilicDennis Bilic
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Sustainable Australia

 


Tom TomlinTom Tomlin
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Reason

 


Alan MenadueJennifer Long
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Animal Justice Party

 


Wendy PattersonWendy Patterson
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Aussie Battlers Party

 


Alan MenadueAlan Menadue
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Independent

 

 

Prediction:

Tossup. Greens retain favoured

The Greens got over the line in Prahran by a handful of votes in 2014. The Liberal Party will no doubt be wanting to regain this seat in 2018 and it is entirely possible that they could succeed.

With that being said, Sam Hibbins should benefit from the usual 'sophomore surge' that incumbent first term MPs usually benefit from. However, the other unknown is how well a Greens incumbent will benefit in a traditionally conservative seat compared to Greens incumbents in traditionally Labor seats.

2014 Results:

Aside from the three main parties, the Family First Party (FFP) and the Animal Justice Party (AJP) stood candidates in this electorate, in 2014. In addition, three candidates stood as independents.

Note: two candidate preferred results between Sam Hibbins and Clem Newton-Brown are not available via the Victorian Electoral Commission, hence an estimated two party preferred vote by polling place has been provided below.

PRAHRAN
2014 Primary Vote by Polling Place

 

Sam Hibbins (GRN)

Alan Walker (FFP) Neil Pharaogh (ALP) Jason Simon Goldsmith Steve Stefanopoulos Clem Newton-Brown (LIB)
X
Eleonora Gullone (AJP) Maxwell Alan Menadue
Alma 29.2% 0.2% 26.6% 0.9% 0.2% 34.1% 2.2% 0.4%
Balaclava 35.2% 0.6% 31.0% 1.6% nil 23.6% 2.5% 0.3%
Fawkner Park 23.9% 0.5% 22.0% 0.2% 0.5% 47.0% 1.7% 0.2%
Hawksburn 21.7% 0.6% 21.7% 0.5% 0.6% 48.4% 1.6% 0.1%
Hawksburn Central 18.4% 0.7% 29.0% 0.7% 0.7% 40.2% 3.3% 0.3%
Orrong 19.8% 0.2% 24.8% 0.6% 0.9% 46.5% 2.3% 0.2%
Prahran 29.2% 0.4% 24.6 0.8% 0.5% 35.9% 4.0% 0.1%
Prahran East 26.0% 0.7% 24.3% 0.7% 0.7% 37.4% 2.3% 0.1%
Redan Central 27.7% 0.9% 34.0% 0.6% 1.0% 25.0% 3.2% 0.1%
South Yarra 22.6% 1.1% 19.8% 0.4% 0.6% 50.1% 2.1% 0.1%
St Kilda East 32.5% 0.6% 29.2% 0.5% 0.4% 29.7% 1.8% 0.2%
Toorak Central 21.4% 0.1% 19.8% 0.2% 0.3% 52.8% 1.2% 0.4%
Toorak West 13.4% 0.9% 11.8% 0.2% 0.6% 67.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Windsor 29.7% 1.0% 26.7% 0.8% 0.6% 34.5% 1.8% 0.3%
Absent Votes 25.3% 1.2% 22.5% 0.6% 0.7% 42.1% 2.1% 0.1%
Early Votes 22.6% 0.7% 28.4% 0.7% 0.6% 40.2% 2.1% 0.3%
Postal Votes 16.2% 0.7% 20.9% 0.8% 0.5% 53.0% 1.9% 0.2%
Provisional Votes 30.6% 1.4% 23.1% 1.0% 0.8% 33.2% 3.8% 0.8%
TOTALS 24.7% 0.7% 24.6% 0.7% 0.6% 41.2% 2.3% 0.2%
*NB: there may be some variation between the results shown in the table above and the final results due to recounts that took place for this electorate in 2014. Data provided by the VEC.

 

2014 Two Party Preferred Vote by Polling Place (Estimated)

 

Clem Newton-Brown (LIB)  X

Sam Hibbins (GRN)
Alma 43.5% 56.5%
Balaclava 32.4% 67.6%
Fawkner Park 53.5% 46.5%
Hawksburn 56.5% 43.5%
Hawksburn Central 51.6% 48.4%
Orrong 56.2% 43.8%
Prahran 45.4% 54.6%
Prahran East 51.2% 48.8%
Redan Central 39.9% 61.1%
South Yarra 59.2% 41.8%
St Kilda East 41.4% 59.6%
Toorak Central 61.7% 39.3%
Toorak West 77.4% 23.6%
Windsor 46.8% 54.2%
Absent Votes 54.2% 46.8%
Early Votes 49.7% 51.3%
Postal Votes 64.9% 36.1%
Provisional Votes 45.5% 55.5%
TOTALS 49.6% 50.4%
*NB: Two party preferred results are an estimate only, assuming around an 80% preference flow to Hibbins from Labor.

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