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Northern Victoria Region

Incumbents:

PARTY NAME BASED IN
Liberal Wendy Lovell Shepparton
Labor Steve Herbert Mark Gepp Woodend
Nationals Damian Drum Luke O'Sullivan Bendigo
Labor Jaclyn Symes Wallan
Shooters and Fishers Daniel Young Seymour

Region Profile:

The Northern Victoria Region extends from Melbourne's outer northern suburbs and covers the rural north west, north and north east of Victoria. It contains the lower house electorates of Benambra, Bendigo East, Bendigo West, Eildon, Euroa, Macedon, Mildura, Murray Plains, Ovens Valley and Shepparton.

Most of the area has historically been very safe for the conservative parties, however independents have challenged and continue to challenge the incumbents in some seats. Labor perform best in the more suburban areas such as Bendigo.

Declared 2018 Candidates:

PARTY/TICKET NAME/S
Hudson For Northern Victoria
  • 1. Josh Hudson
Labor
  • 1. Mark Gepp
  • 2. Jaclyn Symes
Liberal/The Nationals
  • 1. Wendy Lovell (Liberal)
  • 2. Luke O'Sullivan (Nationals)
The Greens
  • 1. Nicole Rowan

Prediction:

Liberal/Nationals - 2, Labor - 1. fourth seat - tossup between Labor and Greens, final seat - a right-leaning minor party

The first Liberal and first Labor candidates on the ticket can be considered safe. Likewise, the second candidate (the Nationals) on the Coalition can also be considered safe on the basis of the Coalition ticket getting well over two quotas in their own right.

The second Labor candidate is very dicey, who was successful after benefiting preference flows from the Greens and other Left parties. The Labor ticket had 9.68% surplus vote after the first Labor candidate was elected in 2018. The fourth seat will likely be a contest between Labor and The Greens and will come down entirely to which of Labor or The Greens have the higher vote after the first Labor candidate is elected.

The fifth seat will be a contest between the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, another minor right leaning party and the third Coalition candidate. Following the successful election of the second Coalition candidate in 2018, the ticket was left with a surplus of 7.77% of the vote.

2014 Results:

The first preference results for each party by lower house electorate are listed below. Not sure what party acronym/abbreviation is what? Refer to this list.

NORTHERN VICTORIA REGION
First preference vote by Legislative Assembly (lower house) electorate.

SEAT A: DLP B: PUP C: ASP D: SFP
E: FFP F CYC G: AJP
Benambra 3.9% 3.7% 3.4% 4.9% 3.3% 0.7% 1.7%
Bendigo East 4.3% 2.4% 3.2% 2.6% 2.4% 0.5% 1.8%
Bendigo West 4.5% 2.8% 3.4% 2.4% 2.4% 0.5% 2.1%
Eildon 3.6% 2.8% 2.4% 3.3% 2.1% 0.5% 2.0%
Euroa 4.1% 3.2% 3.2% 4.0% 2.6% 0.4% 1.6%
Macedon 4.0% 2.3% 2.9% 2.5% 1.7% 0.5% 2.2%
Mildura 4.1% 2.4% 4.6% 3.6% 4.2% 0.5% 1.6%
Murray Plains 4.1% 3.3% 3.2% 4.3% 3.2% 0.5% 1.3%
Ovens Valley 3.6% 3.1% 3.0% 4.4% 2.9% 0.6% 1.6%
Shepparton 4.3% 3.3% 3.4% 4.2% 4.1% 0.6% 1.8%
Yan Yean 5.0% 2.5% 3.2% 2.3% 2.5% 0.4% 1.9%
TOTALS 4.2% 2.9% 3.3% 3.5% 2.9% 0.5% 1.8%
  H: ACA I: LIB/NAT
✓ ✓ X
J: GRN K: PPV L: LDP M: RUAP N: ALP
✓ ✓
Benambra 1.5% 41.3% 8.9% 0.4% 2.9% 0.5% 23.1%
Bendigo East 0.8% 36.0% 7.4% 0.2% 1.9% 1.0% 35.7%
Bendigo West 0.8% 28.6% 11.4% 0.3% 1.6% 1.0% 38.2%
Eildon 1.7% 41.6% 12.4% 0.4% 2.7% 0.4% 24.1%
Euroa 2.0% 45.1% 5.8% 0.4% 2.1% 0.3% 25.2%
Macedon 0.6% 36.9% 13.9% 0.2% 2.2% 0.3% 29.9%
Mildura 4.5% 46.2% 3.7% 0.4% 2.7% 1.3% 20.1%
Murray Plains 3.1% 54.0% 3.2% 0.3% 2.2% 1.0% 16.4%
Ovens Valley 3.3% 45.6% 7.1% 0.3% 2.3% 0.4% 21.8%
Shepparton 8.5% 41.0% 4.3% 0.3% 2.3% 0.5% 21.2%
Yan Yean 0.6% 36.4% 7.1% 0.4% 2.9% 0.3% 34.5%
TOTALS 2.5% 41.2% 7.7% 0.3% 2.4% 0.6% 26.4%
Data provided by the VEC.

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