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Northern Metropolitan Region

Incumbents:

PARTY NAME BASED IN
Labor Jenny Mikakos Reservoir (Preston)
Liberal Craig Ondarchie South Morang (Mill Park)
Greens Greg Barber Samantha Ratnam Carlton (Melbourne)
Labor Nazih Elasmar Preston
Reason Party Fiona Patten Brunswick

Region Profile:

The Northern Metropolitan Region covers the central Melbourne suburbs, as well as the suburbs directly north of the Melbourne CBD. The lower house electorates covered by Northern Metro are Broadmeadows, Brunswick, Bundoora, Melbourne, Mill Park, Northcote, Pascoe Vale, Preston, Richmond, Thomastown and Yuroke.

Most of the area has historically been of a staunchly working class nature with the lower house electorates usually being very safe for the Labor Party. In recent years, however, the Greens have been a rising presence in many of these seats, particularly those in the south of the region, owing to the gentrification of these areas.

Declared 2018 Candidates:

PARTY/TICKET NAME/S  
A: Vote 1 Local Jobs
  • 1. Nathan Purcell
  • 2. Aaron Purcell
 
B: Aussie Battler Party
  • 1. Walter Mikac
  • 2. David Graham
 
C: Sustainable Australia Party
  • 1. Mark McDonald
  • 2. William Clow
 
D: Australian Country Party/Give It Back
  • 1. Cameron Stoddart
  • 2. Domenic Greco
 
E: Reason Party
  • 1. Fiona Patten
  • 2. Helena Melton
  • 3. Ange Hopkins
  • 4. Rachel Payne
  • 5. Dominique Musico
 
F: Voluntary Euthanasia Party
  • 1. Sandra M. McCarthy
  • 2. Stefan Nott
 
G: Liberal Democratic Party
  • 1. Louise Hitchcock
  • 2. Richard Wright
 
H: Health Australia Party
  • 1. Pippa Campbell
  • 2. Emily Oldmeadow
 
I: Liberal
  • 1. Craig Ondarchie
  • 2. Evan Mulholland
  • 3. Neelam Rai
  • 4. Kate Drake
  • 5. Mark Polistena
 
J: The Greens
  • 1. Samantha Ratnam
  • 2. Christina Zigouras
  • 3. Edward Crossland
  • 4. Josef Rafalowicz
  • 5. Campbell Gome
 
K: Transport Matters Party
  • 1. Moti Ram Visa
  • 2. Afshan Main
 
L: Victorian Socialists
  • 1. Stephen Jolly
  • 2. Sue Bolton
  • 3. Colleen Bolger
 
M: Democratic Labour Party
  • 1. John McBride
  • 2. Jackie Gwynne
 
N: Australian Liberty Alliance
  • 1. Russell Gomez
  • 2. John Reisner
 
O: Labor
  • 1. Jenny Mikakos
  • 2. Nazih Elasmar
  • 3. Burhan Yigit
  • 4. Ash Verma
  • 5. Karen Douglas
 
P: Derryn Hinch's Justice Party
  • 1. Carmal Dagiandis
  • 2. Prudence Mercieca
 
Q: Animal Justice Party
  • 1. Bruce Poon
  • 2. Miranda Smith
  • 3. Chris Delforce
 
R: Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party
  • 1. Ethan Constantinou
  • 2. Chris Tzelepis
 
S: Hudson For Northern Victoria
  • 1. Madison Wright
  • 2. Marylynn Meneghini
 

Prediction:

Labor - 2, Liberal - 1, Greens - 1. Final seat to a Left-leaning minor party

The first three seats are safe for all of the three main parties, Labor, Liberal, Greens, respectively. The second Labor seat is also very safe, on count of Labor's generally strong vote in Melbourne's northern suburbs.

The fifth seat is really the only seat that is in play in the Northern Metropolitan region. The Greens are already over a quota in their own right and could very well take the last seat on preferences. However, like with the two traditional major parties, there is a correlation between an increasing lower house Greens vote and a decreasing upper house Greens vote. The other thing going against the Greens is a loss of Greg Barber's profile and personal vote with a new MLA in Samantha Ratnam who likely won't have developed as big of a personal vote at this stage. The Greens do have ambitions of holding two seats in this region, but the current political climate will make it very hard for them to achieve this feat this time around.

The final seat will likely come down between Fiona Patten of the Reason Party and Stephen Jolly of the Victorian Socialists and preferences will be crucial to the outcome. Although Patten is favoured by incumbency, Jolly also has a very large profile and is running big grassroots campaign.

2014 Results:

The first preference results for each party by lower house electorate are listed below. Not sure what party acronym/abbreviation is what? Refer to this list.

NORTHERN METROPOLITAN REGION
First preference vote by Legislative Assembly (lower house) electorate.

SEAT A: TBRNR B: SFP C: LIB
X
D: CYC E: AC F: RUAP G: AJP H: FFP I: DLP J: V1LJ K: ACA
Broadmeadows 1.7% 1.4% 17.2% 0.7% 3.5% 0.5% 1.1% 3.0% 4.6% 0.4% 0.2%
Brunswick 1.7% 0.7% 16.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Bundoora 1.2% 1.3% 31.4% 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 1.5% 2.1% 2.9% 0.4% 0.2%
Melbourne 1.2% 0.3% 23.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 1.7% 0.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Mill Park 1.3% 1.9% 25.3% 0.5% 1.1% 0.3% 1.7% 3.4% 3.7% 0.4% 0.2%
Northcote 1.8% 0.6% 16.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 1.5% 0.7% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Pascoe Vale 1.7% 1.2% 25.1% 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 1.7% 1.7% 2.9% 0.4% 0.2%
Preston 1.7% 1.0% 21.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 1.7% 1.8% 3.2% 0.5% 0.3%
Richmond 1.5% 0.4% 21.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 1.4% 0.7% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Thomastown 1.7% 1.6% 18.0% 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 1.1% 3.9% 4.7% 0.6% 0.2%
Yuroke 1.4% 1.7% 25.2% 0.5% 4.9% 0.4% 1.6% 3.0% 3.7% 0.4% 0.2%
TOTALS 1.5% 1.1% 21.9% 0.8% 1.4% 0.3% 1.5% 1.9% 2.9% 0.4% 0.2%
  L: LDP M: GRN
N:     O: PUP P: PPV Q: VFTW R: VEP S: ASP
T: ALP
Ungrouped: Darren M. Bain Ungrouped: Tiffany Harrison
Broadmeadows 1.7% 5.1% 0.3% 1.5% 0.6% 1.2% 0.2% 2.3% 52.9% 0.00% 0.01%
Brunswick 1.1% 35.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 1.1% 0.3% 2.8% 31.0% 0.01% 0.14%
Bundoora 1.8% 7.8% 0.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 3.0% 42.0% 0.01% 0.01%
Melbourne 1.2% 37.1% 0.4% 0,5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 3.2% 25.7% 0.04% 0.04%
Mill Park 1.6% 4.3% 0.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 3.1% 48.4% 0.003% 0.003%
Northcote 1.0% 34.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 2.6% 34.5% 0.01% 0.11%
Pascoe Vale 1.7% 14.3% 0.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 3.1% 40.2% 0.01% 0.03%
Preston 1.4% 14.8% 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 3.2% 44.6% 0.01% 0.04%
Richmond 1.3% 35.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 2.8% 29.5% 0.01% 0.06%
Thomastown 1.7% 4.1% 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 2.5% 55.2% 0.003% 0.01%
Yuroke 1.8% 4.3% 0.3% 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 3.0% 45.1% 0.01% 0.00%
TOTALS 1.5% 18.6% 0.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 2.9% 40.4% 0.01% 0.04%
Data provided by the VEC.

2014 Distribution of preferences

The below table outlines the order of elimination in 2014 and where preferences flowed to.

Count Exclusion Votes Transferred to...
6 Country Alliance Family First
7 People Power Victoria/No Smart Meters Group N
8 Voluntary Euthanasia Party Sex Party
9 Rise Up Australia Party Family First
10 Vote 1 Local Jobs Family First
11 Voice for the West Group N
12 Australian Cyclists Party Animal Justice Party
13 Shooters and Fishers Party Sex Party
14 Palmer United Party Family First
15 Group N Animal Justice Party (Originally for People Power Victoria/No Smart Meters, Voice for the West)
16 Australian Christians Family First
17 Liberal Democrats Sex Party
18 The Basics of Rock'n'Roll Party Sex Party
19 Greens Sex Party
20 Democratic Labour Party Family First
21 Animal Justice Party Sex Party (Originally for Australian Cyclists Party, Group N)
Family First (Originally for People Power Victoria/No Smart Meters, Voice for the West)
22 Liberal Family First
23 Labor Sex Party (Fiona Patten Elected)

 


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