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Northern Metropolitan Region

Incumbents:

PARTY NAME BASED IN
Labor Jenny Mikakos Reservoir (Preston)
Liberal Craig Ondarchie South Morang (Mill Park)
Greens Greg Barber Samantha Ratnam Carlton (Melbourne)
Labor Nazih Elasmar Preston
Reason Party Fiona Patten Brunswick

Region Profile:

The Northern Metropolitan Region covers the central Melbourne suburbs, as well as the suburbs directly north of the Melbourne CBD. The lower house electorates covered by Northern Metro are Broadmeadows, Brunswick, Bundoora, Melbourne, Mill Park, Northcote, Pascoe Vale, Preston, Richmond, Thomastown and Yuroke.

Most of the area has historically been of a staunchly working class nature with the lower house electorates usually being very safe for the Labor Party. In recent years, however, the Greens have been a rising presence in many of these seats, particularly those in the south of the region, owing to the gentrification of these areas.

Declared 2018 Candidates:

PARTY/TICKET NAME/S
Animal Justice Party
  • 1. Bruce Poon
Reason Party
  • 1. Fiona Patten
The Greens
  • 1. Samantha Ratnam
Victorian Socialists
  • 1. Stephen Jolly
  • 2. Sue Bolton
  • 3. Colleen Bolger

Prediction:

Labor - 2, Liberal - 1, Greens - 1. Final seat to a Left-leaning minor party

The first three seats are safe for all of the three main parties, Labor, Liberal, Greens, respectively. The second Labor seat is also very safe, on count of Labor's generally strong vote in Melbourne's northern suburbs.

The fifth seat is really the only seat that is in play in the Northern Metropolitan region. The Greens are already over a quota in their own right and could very well take the last seat on preferences. However, like with the two traditional major parties, there is a correlation between an increasing lower house Greens vote and a decreasing upper house Greens vote. The other thing going against the Greens is a loss of Greg Barber's profile and personal vote with a new MLA in Samantha Ratnam who likely won't have developed as big of a personal vote at this stage. If the former trend holds in 2018, combined with the latter, then the Greens will find it hard to gain a second seat.

Fiona Patten, who represents the Reason Party (formerly the Sex Party) has presumably acquired a new profile and personal vote - but it is hard to know whether this will be enough to win a second term. If Labor finish ahead of the Greens and Reason were to get a strong enough preference flow from other small parties to get ahead of the Greens, Greens preferences could be enough to get Patten over a quota.

2014 Results:

The first preference results for each party by lower house electorate are listed below. Not sure what party acronym/abbreviation is what? Refer to this list.

NORTHERN METROPOLITAN REGION
First preference vote by Legislative Assembly (lower house) electorate.

SEAT A: TBRNR B: SFP C: LIB
X
D: CYC E: AC F: RUAP G: AJP H: FFP I: DLP J: V1LJ K: ACA
Broadmeadows 1.7% 1.4% 17.2% 0.7% 3.5% 0.5% 1.1% 3.0% 4.6% 0.4% 0.2%
Brunswick 1.7% 0.7% 16.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Bundoora 1.2% 1.3% 31.4% 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 1.5% 2.1% 2.9% 0.4% 0.2%
Melbourne 1.2% 0.3% 23.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 1.7% 0.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Mill Park 1.3% 1.9% 25.3% 0.5% 1.1% 0.3% 1.7% 3.4% 3.7% 0.4% 0.2%
Northcote 1.8% 0.6% 16.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 1.5% 0.7% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Pascoe Vale 1.7% 1.2% 25.1% 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 1.7% 1.7% 2.9% 0.4% 0.2%
Preston 1.7% 1.0% 21.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 1.7% 1.8% 3.2% 0.5% 0.3%
Richmond 1.5% 0.4% 21.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 1.4% 0.7% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Thomastown 1.7% 1.6% 18.0% 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 1.1% 3.9% 4.7% 0.6% 0.2%
Yuroke 1.4% 1.7% 25.2% 0.5% 4.9% 0.4% 1.6% 3.0% 3.7% 0.4% 0.2%
TOTALS 1.5% 1.1% 21.9% 0.8% 1.4% 0.3% 1.5% 1.9% 2.9% 0.4% 0.2%
  L: LDP M: GRN
N:     O: PUP P: PPV Q: VFTW R: VEP S: ASP
T: ALP
Ungrouped: Darren M. Bain Ungrouped: Tiffany Harrison
Broadmeadows 1.7% 5.1% 0.3% 1.5% 0.6% 1.2% 0.2% 2.3% 52.9% 0.00% 0.01%
Brunswick 1.1% 35.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 1.1% 0.3% 2.8% 31.0% 0.01% 0.14%
Bundoora 1.8% 7.8% 0.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 3.0% 42.0% 0.01% 0.01%
Melbourne 1.2% 37.1% 0.4% 0,5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 3.2% 25.7% 0.04% 0.04%
Mill Park 1.6% 4.3% 0.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 3.1% 48.4% 0.003% 0.003%
Northcote 1.0% 34.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 2.6% 34.5% 0.01% 0.11%
Pascoe Vale 1.7% 14.3% 0.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 3.1% 40.2% 0.01% 0.03%
Preston 1.4% 14.8% 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 3.2% 44.6% 0.01% 0.04%
Richmond 1.3% 35.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 2.8% 29.5% 0.01% 0.06%
Thomastown 1.7% 4.1% 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 2.5% 55.2% 0.003% 0.01%
Yuroke 1.8% 4.3% 0.3% 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 3.0% 45.1% 0.01% 0.00%
TOTALS 1.5% 18.6% 0.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 2.9% 40.4% 0.01% 0.04%
Data provided by the VEC.

2014 Distribution of preferences

The below table outlines the order of elimination in 2014 and where preferences flowed to.

Count Exclusion Votes Transferred to...
6 Country Alliance Family First
7 People Power Victoria/No Smart Meters Group N
8 Voluntary Euthanasia Party Sex Party
9 Rise Up Australia Party Family First
10 Vote 1 Local Jobs Family First
11 Voice for the West Group N
12 Australian Cyclists Party Animal Justice Party
13 Shooters and Fishers Party Sex Party
14 Palmer United Party Family First
15 Group N Animal Justice Party (Originally for People Power Victoria/No Smart Meters, Voice for the West)
16 Australian Christians Family First
17 Liberal Democrats Sex Party
18 The Basics of Rock'n'Roll Party Sex Party
19 Greens Sex Party
20 Democratic Labour Party Family First
21 Animal Justice Party Sex Party (Originally for Australian Cyclists Party, Group N)
Family First (Originally for People Power Victoria/No Smart Meters, Voice for the West)
22 Liberal Family First
23 Labor Sex Party (Fiona Patten Elected)

 


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