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Incumbents:

PARTY/TICKET NAME
Labor Jenny Mikakos
Liberal Craig Ondarchie
Greens Greg Barber
Labor Nazih Elasmar
Reason Party Fiona Patten

Region Profile:

Declared 2018 Candidates:

PARTY/TICKET NAME/S
The Greens
  • Samantha Ratnam
Victorian Socialists
  • Stephen Jolly
  • Sue Bolton (SA)
  • Colleen Bolger (SAlt)

Assessment:

The first three seats are safe for all of the three main parties, Labor, Liberal, Greens, respectively. The second Labor seat is also very safe, on count of Labor's generally strong vote in Melbourne's northern suburbs.

The fifth seat is really the only seat that is in play in the Western Metropolitan region. The Greens are already over a quota in their own right and could very well take the last seat on preferences. However, like with the two traditional major parties, there is a correlation between an increasing lower house Greens vote and a decreasing upper house Greens vote. The other thing going against the Greens is a loss of Greg Barber's profile and personal vote with a new MLA in Samantha Ratnam who likely won't have as big of a personal vote at this stage. If the former trend holds in 2018, combined with the latter, then the Greens will find it hard to gain a second seat.

Fiona Patten, who represents the Reason Party (formerly the Sex Party) has presumably acquired a new profile and personal vote - but it is hard to know whether this will be enough to win a second term. If Labor finish ahead of the Greens and Reason were to get a strong enough preference flow from other small parties to get ahead of the Greens, Greens preferences could be enough to get Patten over a quota.

2014 Results:

The first preference results for each party by lower house electorate are listed below. Not sure what party acronym/abbreviation is what? Refer to this list.

NORTHERN METROPOLITAN REGION
First preference vote by Legislative Assembly (lower house) electorate.

SEAT A: TBRNR B: SFP C: LIB
X
D: CYC E: AC F: RUAP G: AJP H: FFP I: DLP J: V1LJ K: ACA
Broadmeadows 1.7% 1.4% 17.2% 0.7% 3.5% 0.5% 1.1% 3.0% 4.6% 0.4% 0.2%
Brunswick 1.7% 0.7% 16.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Bundoora 1.2% 1.3% 31.4% 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 1.5% 2.1% 2.9% 0.4% 0.2%
Melbourne 1.2% 0.3% 23.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 1.7% 0.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Mill Park 1.3% 1.9% 25.3% 0.5% 1.1% 0.3% 1.7% 3.4% 3.7% 0.4% 0.2%
Northcote 1.8% 0.6% 16.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 1.5% 0.7% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Pascoe Vale 1.7% 1.2% 25.1% 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 1.7% 1.7% 2.9% 0.4% 0.2%
Preston 1.7% 1.0% 21.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 1.7% 1.8% 3.2% 0.5% 0.3%
Richmond 1.5% 0.4% 21.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 1.4% 0.7% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Thomastown 1.7% 1.6% 18.0% 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 1.1% 3.9% 4.7% 0.6% 0.2%
Yuroke 1.4% 1.7% 25.2% 0.5% 4.9% 0.4% 1.6% 3.0% 3.7% 0.4% 0.2%
TOTALS 1.5% 1.1% 21.9% 0.8% 1.4% 0.3% 1.5% 1.9% 2.9% 0.4% 0.2%
  L: LDP M: GRN
N:     O: PUP P: PPV Q: VFTW R: VEP S: ASP
T: ALP
Ungrouped: Darren M. Bain Ungrouped: Tiffany Harrison
Broadmeadows 1.7% 5.1% 0.3% 1.5% 0.6% 1.2% 0.2% 2.3% 52.9% 0.00% 0.01%
Brunswick 1.1% 35.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 1.1% 0.3% 2.8% 31.0% 0.01% 0.14%
Bundoora 1.8% 7.8% 0.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 3.0% 42.0% 0.01% 0.01%
Melbourne 1.2% 37.1% 0.4% 0,5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 3.2% 25.7% 0.04% 0.04%
Mill Park 1.6% 4.3% 0.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 3.1% 48.4% 0.003% 0.003%
Northcote 1.0% 34.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 2.6% 34.5% 0.01% 0.11%
Pascoe Vale 1.7% 14.3% 0.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 3.1% 40.2% 0.01% 0.03%
Preston 1.4% 14.8% 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 3.2% 44.6% 0.01% 0.04%
Richmond 1.3% 35.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 2.8% 29.5% 0.01% 0.06%
Thomastown 1.7% 4.1% 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 2.5% 55.2% 0.003% 0.01%
Yuroke 1.8% 4.3% 0.3% 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 3.0% 45.1% 0.01% 0.00%
TOTALS 1.5% 18.6% 0.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 2.9% 40.4% 0.01% 0.04%
Data provided by the VEC.

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