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Seat of Northcote

(Central Melbourne)
Fairly Safe. Greens 5.6% (vs ALP)

Profile:

Located in the inner north of Melbourne, Northcote covers the suburbs of Alphington, Fairfield, Northcote, Thornbury, and part of Preston. It lies on the northern bank of the Yarra River between the Merri and Darebin creeks.

In existence since the late 1920's, the area constituting this electorate has historically been of a working class nature and as such, was always uninterrupted held by the Labor Party by large margins. In recent years, the area has been gentrifying rapidly. Since 2002, the Greens had been steadily increasing their vote and finishing second on two party preferred terms. Following the death of then incumbent MP Fiona Richardson, the Greens' Lidia Thorpe was able to win the seat for the first time in the ensuing by-election in late 2017.

Incumbent MP:

Lidia Thorpe (Greens) - since 2017. Pictured right.

Electorate Boundaries and 2014 Polling Places:

Candidates:

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Lidia Thorpe

Lidia Thorpe Lidia Thorpe
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Greens (Incumbent MP)

Lidia Thorpe has been the MP for the Northcote District since the 2017 Northcote state by-election. After leaving school at 14 and furthering her education at Preston and Epping TAFEs, Lidia has become a public education advocate and sits on the Smith Family’s National Advisory Board and was also the Chair of the Victorian NAIDOC Committee. She is also a community worker, mother and Managing Director of a sustainable housing and renewable energy business.


Assessment:

The outcome of this seat will be largely determined on whether the Liberals stand a candidate in this electorate. As the 2018 Batman by-election demonstrates (which saw substantial swings against the Greens in the area constituting Northcote) the Greens retaining the seat is by no means guaranteed. The Greens will also not have the luxury of putting their resources into a single seat, either, as they could for a by-election.

2017 By-election Results:

NORTHCOTE
2017 by-election Primary Vote by Polling Place

 

Russell Hayward

Brian Sanaghan Lidia Thorpe (GRN) Nina Lenk (AJP) Laura Chipp Philip Cooper Dean Rossiter (LDP) Clare Burns (ALP) Joseph Toscano Bryony Edwards Nevena Spirovska Vince Fontana
Alphington 4.9% 1.0% 41.7% 2.3% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 36.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 3.8%
Alphington North 1.7% 0.6% 38.6% 2.9% 5.3% 1.7% 4.8% 37.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.6% 5.5%
Bell 0.5% 1.2% 51.9% 1.8% 2.7% 1.3% 3.6% 30.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 5.1%
Croxton 0.4% 0.3% 52.8% 1.5% 3.5% 1.2% 2.1% 32.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.7% 3.8%
Derebin Parklands 1.8% 0.8% 33.6% 3.4% 2.9% 1.3% 4.7% 43.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.5% 6.5%
Fairfield 1.2% 0.5% 48.4% 1.6% 4.1% 1.3% 4.1% 33.4% 0.4% 1.0% 0.8% 3.2%
Northcote 0.6% 0.6% 48.6% 3.0% 4.0% 1.3% 3.3% 32.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.8% 4.2%
Northcote North 1.0% 0.2% 46.7% 2.9% 3.9% 1.8% 3.5% 35.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.6% 2.8%
Northcote South 0.8% 0.4% 51.1% 2.0% 2.7% 1.0% 3.1% 34.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.8% 2.7%
Preston South 1.4% 0.4% 40.0% 2.3% 2.9% 1.1% 4.0% 40.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.5% 5.5%
Thornsbury 0.5% 0.1% 48.8% 2.3% 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 33.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 5.7%
Thornsbury East 1.2% 0.5% 41.1% 1.5% 2.4% 1.2% 4.3% 38.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 8.2%
Thornsbury South 0.6% 0.2% 44.8% 2.2% 2.6% 1.8% 3.9% 36.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 6.1%
Westgarth 0.7% 0.3% 60.0% 2.0% 1.9% 0.9% 2.3% 26.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.7% 3.1%
Early Votes 1.1% 0.6% 45.5% 1.8% 3.2% 0.9% 4.3% 34.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% 6.5%
Postal Votes 1.8% 1.1% 29.2% 2.8% 3.1% 0.7% 8.5% 44.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% 5.6%
Provisional Votes 4.2% 0.0% 43.8% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 38.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2%
TOTALS 1.0% 0.6% 45.2% 2.1% 3.2% 1.2% 4.1% 35.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.6% 5.2%

Data provided by the VEC.

 

2017 Northcote by-election two party preferred vote by polling place

  Clare Burns (ALP) Lidia Thorpe (GRN)
Alphington 47.1% 52.9%
Alphington North 49.0% 51.0%
Bell 38.4% 61.6%
Crozton 39.1% 60.9%
Derebin Parklands 53.2% 46.8%
Fairfield 41.1% 58.9%
Northcote 40.6% 59.4%
Northcote North 44.4% 55.6%
Northcote South 40.6% 59.4%
Preston South 48.2% 51.8%
Thornbury 40.9% 59.1%
Thornbury East 46.9% 53.1%
Thornbury South 45.7% 54.3%
Westgarth 32.1% 67.9%
Early Votes 43.1% 56.9%
Postal Votes 59.7% 40.3%
Provisional Votes 45.5% 54.5%
TOTALS 44.4% 55.6%

Data provided by the VEC.

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