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Eastern Metropolitan Region

Incumbents:

PARTY NAME BASED IN
Liberal Mary Woodridge Blackburn (Box Hill)
Labor Shaun Leane Wantirna South (Ferntree Gully)
Liberal Bruce Atkinson Ringwood
Liberal Richard Dalla-Riva Vermont South (Forest Hill)
Greens Samantha Dunn Doncaster (Bulleen)

Region Profile:

The Eastern Metropolitan Region contains the lower house districts of Bayswater, Box Hill, Bulleen, Croydon, Eltham, Ferntree Gully, Forest Hill, Ivanhoe, Mount Waverley, Ringwood and Warrandyte.

It features some of the strongest areas for the Liberal Party, containing some of Melbourne's most affluent suburban areas.

2018 Candidates:

PARTY/TICKET NAME/S
Liberal
  • Emanuelo Cicchiello

Assessment:

The first and second seats are safe for the two major parties.

The third seat is also safe for the Liberal Party. While the fourth Liberal seat is also reasonably safe for the Liberals, however it may come into play if the vote of the combined right leaning others increases. However, if the Liberal Party manages to increase their vote, they should be able to hold on to their third seat.

The fifth seat will come down between Labor and the Greens. Once Labor had its first candidate elected, they were left with a surplus vote of 12%, compared to the Greens 10.5%, indicating that the Greens relied heavily on a strong flow of preferences from the left leaning minor parties to get the last seat at the expense of Labor.

Samantha Dunn has no doubt acquired a personal vote after four years of incumbency - however if the trend of the Greens upper house vote declining in favour of other minor parties continues, or if preference flows aren't as favourable, she may struggle to hold on. The seat will come down to between the Greens and Labor, in any case.

2014 Results:

The first preference results for each party by lower house electorate are listed below. Not sure what party acronym/abbreviation is what? Refer to this list.

NORTHERN METROPOLITAN REGION
First preference vote by Legislative Assembly (lower house) electorate.

SEAT A: VEP B: LIB
✓ ✓ ✓
C: PUP
 
D: LDP E: FFP F: ASP G: DLP H: RUAP
Baywater 1.0% 42.6% 2.0% 1.4% 1.7% 2.5% 2.7% 0.4%
Box Hill 1.0% 46.4% 0.9% 1.3% 1.0% 1.8% 1.9% 0.3%
Bulleen 1.3% 51.8% 1.2% 1.5% 1.3% 1.8% 2.4% 0.3%
Croydon 1.1% 47.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.7% 2.2% 2.2% 0.3%
Eltham 1.0% 40.8% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 2.3% 2.3% 0.3%
Ferntree Gully 1.0% 46.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.8% 2.3% 2.7% 0.4%
Forest Hill 0.9% 45.7% 1.1% 1.4% 1.3% 1.6% 2.4% 0.3%
Ivanhoe 1.1% 37.6% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 2.2% 2.3% 0.2%
Mount Waverley 1.2% 47.0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.7% 2.4% 0.3%
Ringwood 1.2% 44.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 2.1% 2.1% 0.3%
Warrandyte 1.0% 52.6% 1.1% 1.5% 1.3% 1.9% 1.9% 0.4%
TOTALS 1.1% 45.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% 0.3%
  I: ACA J: GRN
K: ALP
X
L: AC M: AJP N: SFP O: PPV P: CYC
 
Baywater 0.5% 9.0% 29.7% 1.5% 2.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.4%
Box Hill 0.3% 14.2% 26.2% 1.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7%
Bulleen 0.3% 7.8% 25.5% 1.9% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4%
Croydon 0.8% 8.1% 26.7% 2.1% 2.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.4%
Eltham 0.3% 12.7% 33.0% 0.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.5%
Ferntree Gully 0.5% 7.0% 28.2% 1.8% 2.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4%
Forest Hill 0.4% 9.6% 30.8% 1.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4%
Ivanhoe 0.2% 16.0% 32.9% 0.9% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.6%
Mount Waverley 0.2% 9.2% 30.4% 1.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5%
Ringwood 0.6% 11.7% 28.0% 2.3% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.6%
Warrandyte 0.5% 9.4% 23.8% 1.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4%
TOTALS 0.4% 10.5% 28.7% 1.6% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5%
Data provided by the VEC.

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