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Seat of Caulfield

(Eastern Melbourne)
Marginal. Liberal 4.9%

Profile:

The seat of Caulfield covers the suburbs of Caulfield, Caulfield North, Caulfield South, Caulfield East, Elsternwick, Gardenvale, Ripponlea and Balaclava and parts of St Kilda East, St Kilda, Glen Huntly and Ormond. Created in the 1920's, Caulfield is a district that has almost always been held by the Liberal Party and it's predecessors.

The area has a highly educated and younger demographic compared to the state average. Of those who don't have tertiary qualifications, 11.2% were educated at non-government schools (compared to the state average 4% state wide), with only 3.4% educated at government schools (compared to 11% across the state). There is also a large population of Polish descent, with Judaism (Jewish) being the most prominent religious group (28.1% compared to 0.7% state wide). Most of the workforce comprises of professionals, with managers also being well over-represented.

Incumbent MP:

David Southwick (Liberal) - since 2010. Pictured right.

Electorate Boundaries and 2014 Polling Places:

Candidates:

  • Sorina Grasso (Labor)

Assessment:

Caulfield is marginal on paper, but that was off the back of a larger than average swing against the Liberal Party in 2014. The margin will be corrected in 2018. The Greens also perform strongly in parts of the seat, though they are a fair way behind to be a significant threat.

2014 Results:

CAULFIELD
2014 Primary Vote by Polling Place

  John Myers Tim Baxter (GRN) Teresa Horvath (RUAP) Josh Burns (ALP) David Southwick (LIB)
Bundeera 0.8% 11.8% 0.7% 30.3% 56.3%
Caulfield East 1.1% 13.9% 0.8% 33.3% 51.0%
Caulfield North 0.8% 13.1% 0.4% 26.9% 58.7%
Caulfield South 1.2% 14.9% 0.6% 32.6% 50.7%
Caulfield Upper 0.8% 17.9% 1.5% 33.8% 46.0%
Caulfield West 0.9% 12.9% 1.5% 29.1% 55.7%
Clarence 1.1% 17.8% 0.5% 30.6% 50.0%
Elsternwick 1.6% 18.8% 0.9% 34.6% 44.2%
Elsternwick North 1.1% 24.1% 1.0% 34.9% 38.9%
Glen Eira 1.4% 10.8% 0.5% 31.4% 55.9%
Glenhuntly East 1.7% 18.0% 2.0% 40.7% 37.6%
Ormond 1.8% 15.5% 0.9% 40.5% 41.3%
Ripponlea East 1.3% 27.0% 0.5% 37.2% 34.1%
St Kilda 1.9% 34.2% 1.0% 36.9% 26.0%
Absent Votes 2.1% 28.1% 1.7% 30.3% 37.7%
Early Votes 1.3% 14.0% 0.8% 29.0% 54.9%
Postal Votes 1.4% 8.6% 1.1% 19.8% 69.1%
Provisional Votes 2.7% 24.5% 0.5% 29.2% 43.1%
TOTALS 1.3% 16.3% 0.9% 29.7% 51.7%

 

Data provided by the VEC.

 

2014 two party preferred vote by polling place

  David Southwick (LIB) Josh Burns (ALP)
Bundeera 59.1% 41.0%
Caulfield East 53.1% 46.9%
Caulfield North 61.5% 38.5%
Caulfield South 53.9% 46.1%
Caulfield Upper 50.4% 49.6%
Caulfield West 58.5% 41.5%
Clarence 53.9% 46.1%
Elsternwick 47.6% 52.4%
Elsternwick North 42.8% 57.2%
Glen Eira 58.2% 41.8%
Glenhuntly East 42.1% 57.9%
Ormond 42.9% 57.1%
Ripponlea East 37.9% 62.1%
St Kilda 30.1% 69.9%
Absent Votes 43.2% 56.8%
Early Votes 57.4% 42.6%
Postal Votes 72.0% 28.0%
Provisional Votes 48.1% 51.9%
TOTALS 54.9% 45.1%

 

Data provided by the VEC.

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