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Seat of Carrum

(Outer Eastern Melbourne)
Marginal. Labor 0.7%

Profile:

Carrum is located in the outer south east of Melbourne and consists of the suburbs of Bangholme, Bonbeach, Carrum, Carrum Downs, Patterson Lakes, Sandhurst, Seaford and Skye.

The seat has historically been safe for the Labor Party; however increasing gentrification in the area has seen the Labor margin erode, with the Liberal Party bucking the statewide trend to win the seat for the first time at the 1996 State Election. Since then, it has been a seat that has usually been held by whichever party is in government.

Incumbent MP:

Sonya Kilkenny (Labor) - since 2014. Pictured right.

Electorate Boundaries and 2014 Polling Places:

Candidates:

Quick Navigation:

Donna Bauer | Sonya Kilkenny

Donna BauerDonna Bauer
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Political Party: Liberal.

Donna Bauer was born in Langwarrin South. She was a Councillor for the City of Kingston in 2008 and also formerly represented the seat of Carrum from 2010 to 2014. Donna currently works as a Sales Executive at Hockingstuart Chelsea and lives in Patterson Lakes with her four sons.


Sonya KilkennySonya Kilkenny
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Political Party: Labor (Incumbent MP)

Sonya Kilkenny has been the MP for Carrum since the 2014 State Election. She has worked as a lawyer organisations such as the Kimberley Land Council and the Australian Children's Television Foundation, and has served on the boards of the Back to Back Theatre company and the National Theatre in St Kilda. Just prior to her election, she was head of the legal dispute resolution team at the ANZ Banking Group. She has lived in the Carrum district for more than 10 years.


Assessment:

Tossup. Labor favoured (due to incumbency)

Carrum is a very marginal bellwether seat that is usually held by the party in government.

2014 Results:

Aside from the three main parties, the Family First Party (FFP), and Rise Up Australia (RUAP) were the only other parties to stand candidates in this electorate.

CARRUM
2014 Primary Vote by Polling Place

  Richard Vernay (FFP)

Donna Bauer (LIB) X

Sonya Kilkenny (ALP) Henry Kelsall (GRN) Margaret Quinn (RUAP)
Banyan Fields 3.9% 39.0% 47.3% 7.7% 2.2%
Belvedere Park 2.9% 37.0% 48.0% 8.8% 3.3%
Bonbeach 1.6% 45.8% 40.6% 11.1% 1.0%
Carrum 1.5% 42.8% 43.2% 11.0% 1.4%
Carrum Downs 2.8% 48.6% 43.0% 4.1% 1.4%
Carrum Downs Central 4.3% 39.6% 48.9% 6.2% 1.0%
Chelsea Central 3.9% 41.8% 41.8% 11.2% 1.2%
Kananook 2.4% 37.3% 43.0% 15.4% 1.9%
Lyrebird 4.9% 37.4% 48.4% 6.2% 3.1%
Patterson Lakes 1.6% 58.7% 32.4% 5.8% 1.6%
Rowellyn Park 3.6% 33.9% 55.1% 5.7% 1.8%
Seaford 2.3% 37.7% 47.7% 11.3% 1.0%
Seaford North 2.3% 41.4% 44.7% 10.6% 0.9%
Skye 4.3% 40.8% 47.5% 5.8% 1.6%
Absent Votes 5.7% 40.5% 40.4% 11.1% 2.3%
Early Votes 2.9% 48.7% 40.1% 6.4% 1.8%
Postal Votes 3.4% 52.6% 36.9% 5.5% 1.6%
Provisional Votes 6.9% 32.4% 46.9% 11.4% 2.2%
TOTALS 3.2% 45.2% 42.2% 7.6% 1.8%
Data provided by the VEC.

 

2014 Two Party Preferred Vote by Polling Place
  Donna Bauer (LIB) X Sonya Kilkenny (ALP)
Banyan Fields 44.5% 55.5%
Belvedere Park 41.9% 58.1%
Bonbeach 49.6% 50.4%
Carrum 46.4% 53.6%
Carrum Downs 51.5% 48.5%
Carrum Downs Central 44.1% 55.9%
Chelsea Central 47.3% 52.7%
Kananook 41.9% 58.1%
Lyrebird 43.2% 56.8%
Patterson Lakes 46.8% 53.2%
Rowellyn Park 38.0% 62.0%
Seaford 41.6% 58.4%
Seaford North 45.5% 54.5%
Skye 45.0% 55.0%
Absent Votes 46.6% 53.4%
Early Votes 52.3% 47.7%
Postal Votes 56.2% 43.8%
Provisional Votes 38.2% 61.8%
TOTALS 50.7% 49.3%
Data provided by the VEC.

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