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Western Victoria

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Geelong Region Seats:

Bellarine Geelong Lara South Barwon


Seat of Bellarine

(Geelong Region)
Marginal. Labor 4.8%

Profile:

The Bellarine Electorate covers the Bellarine Peninsula; including the towns of Leopold, Drysdale, Clifton Springs, Portarlington, Indented Head, St Leonards, Queenscliff, Point Lonsdale, Ocean Grove and Barwon Head. It also includes the Geelong suburb of Moolap.

A marginal seat that has historically shown wide voting variations from one election to the next, the seat is one that regularly changes hands and usually does so with big swings against the incumbent MPs; with incumbents usually holding the seat for around two terms before being defeated. Current incumbent, Lisa Neville, was able to buck this trend by winning a third term at the 2014 Election.

Incumbent MP:

Lisa Neville (Labor) - since 2002. Pictured right.

Electorate Boundaries and 2014 Polling Places:

Candidates:

Quick Navigation:

Naomi Adams | Brian McKiterick | Lisa Neville | Rachel Semmens

 

Naomi AdamsNaomi Adams
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Political Party: Animal Justice Party

Naomi Adams has been a resident of Ocean Grove for 10 years. She is a psychologist and has worked as a counsellor in community health on the Bellarine Peninsula for nine years, and more recently in private practice in Geelong. She ran as a candidate in the City of Greater Geelong Councl Elections in 2017.


Brian McKiterickBrian McKiterick
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Political Party: Liberal

Brian McKiterick is a Councilor for the Surf Coast Shire Council, representing Torquay ward and has served several stints as Mayor.


Lisa NevilleLisa Neville
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Political Party: Labor (Incumbent MP)

Lisa Neville has been the MP for Bellarine since the 2002 State Election and currently serves as Minister for Police and Minister for Water in the Andrews Government and previously held the Ministry for Environment and Climate Change. She was born in Newcastle, New South Wales and moved around Australia at a young age due to her family's work commitments. After finishing high school, she attained an arts degree at Griffith University where she was also involved in student unionism, initially with the Queensland Union of Students and then as general secretary and president of the National Union of Students. She worked as a community visitor, inspecting residential facilities for the elderly and disabled on behalf of the state Public Advocate.


Rachel SemmensRachel Semmens
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Political Party: Greens

 

Prediction:

Labor retain favoured

Labor managed to hold on to Bellarine with a swing towards them in 2014, despite the redistribution before the election turning Bellarine into a notional Liberal seat, so it shouldn't be too difficult to imagine them holding on in 2018. With that being said, Bellarine is a seat that shows wide voting variations from one election to the next. If a large swing is on against Labor, Bellarine would be very vulnerable.

2014 Results:

BELLARINE
2014 Primary Vote by Polling Place

 

Lisa Neville (ALP)
 

Rhiannon Hunter (ASP) Brenton Peake (GRN) Ron Nelson (LIB) Robert Keenan (FFP) Christopher Dawson (RUAP) Joshua Williams (SFP) John Irvine (ACA) Gus Kacinskas
Barwon Heads 37.1% 1.5% 18.3% 40.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5%
Beacon Point 47.7% 1.7% 6.3% 39.2% 1.3% 0.9% 1.7% 0.7% 0.6%
Clifton Springs 50.1% 2.2% 5.6% 35.8% 2.1% 0.5% 2.1% 1.3% 0.3%
Collendina 45.7% 1.1% 12.9% 36.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.8% 1.1% 0.3%
Drysdale 43.7% 1,9% 7.8% 41.0% 1.5% 0.6% 1.9% 1.1% 0.5%
Indented Head 43.5% 0.8% 11.3% 41.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Leopold 50.7% 1.6% 6.1% 36.2% 1.8% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 0.6%
Moolap 47.8% 1.7% 6.6% 36.8% 1.3% 0.4% 2.7% 2.3% 0.4%
Ocean Grove 41.4% 1.6% 16.0% 37.2% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Point Lonsdale 34.0% 0.9% 13.9% 49.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%
Portarlington 47.5% 1.1% 6.5% 39.8% 1.3% 0.5% 1.3% 0.7% 1.2%
Queenscliff 36.6% 2.2% 13.4% 46.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.5%
St Leonards 51.6% 1.1% 6.6% 36.0% 1.2% 0.6% 1.2% 1.0% 0.7%
Surfside 45.3% 2.4% 14.5% 35.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.9% 0.4%
Wallington 32.5% 1.3% 12.7% 47.2% 1.1% 1.9% 1.1% 2.0% 0.2%
Absent Votes 42.0% 3.9% 15.6% 31.4% 2.0% 0.8% 2.6% 1.3% 0.6%
Early Votes 42.9% 1.5% 7.7% 43.1% 1.4% 0.3% 1.3% 1.5% 0.3%
Postal Votes 39.5% 1.0% 6.8% 47.9% 1.9% 0.4% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5%
Provisional Votes 42.8% 5.1% 14.1% 29.5% 2.8% 0.3% 2.6% 1.5% 1.3%
TOTALS 43.6% 1.6% 9.4% 40.6% 1.6% 0.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.4%
Data provided by the VEC.

 

2014 two party preferred vote by polling place

  Lisa Neville (ALP) Ron Nelson (LIB)
Barwon Heads 54.9% 45.1%
Beacon Point 55.9% 44.1%
Clifton Springs 58.9% 41.1%
Collendina 59.5% 40.5%
Drysdale 54.3% 45.7%
Indented Head 54.5% 45.5%
Leopold 60.2% 39.8%
Moolap 58.2% 41.8%
Ocean Grove 56.9% 43.1%
Point Lonsdale 47.6% 52.4%
Portarlington 56.9% 43.1%
Queenscliff 50.4% 49.6%
St Leonards 60.5% 39.5%
Surfside 60.8% 39.2%
Wallington 46.1% 53.9%
Absent Votes 60.8% 39.2%
Early Votes 55.3% 44.7%
Postal Votes 47.5% 52.5%
Provisional Votes 62.6% 37.4%
TOTALS 54.8% 45.2%
Data provided by the VEC.

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