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Geelong Region Seats:

Bellarine Geelong Lara South Barwon


Seat of Bellarine
(Geelong Region)
Marginal. Labor 4.8%

Profile:

The Bellarine Electorate covers the Bellarine Peninsula; including the towns of Leopold, Drysdale, Clifton Springs, Portarlington, Indented Head, St Leonards, Queenscliff, Point Lonsdale, Ocean Grove and Barwon Head. It also includes the Geelong suburb of Moolap.

A marginal seat that has historically shown wide voting variations from one election to the next, the seat is one that regularly changes hands and usually does so with big swings against the incumbent MPs; with incumbents usually holding the seat for around three terms before being defeated. Current incumbent, Lisa Neville, was able to buck this trend by winning a fourth term at the 2014 Election.

Incumbent MP:

Lisa Neville (Labor) - since 2002. Pictured right.

Electorate Boundaries and 2014 Polling Places:

Candidates:

None declared as yet.

Assessment:

Lisa Neville managed to hold on to Bellarine with a swing towards Labor in 2014, despite the redistribution before the election turning Bellarine into a notional Liberal seat, so it shouldn't be too difficult to imagine her holding on in 2018. With that being said, Bellarine is a seat that shows wide voting variations from one election to the next.

2014 Results:

BELLARINE
2014 Primary Vote by Polling Place

 

Lisa Neville (ALP)
 

Rhiannon Hunter (ASP) Brenton Peake (GRN) Ron Nelson (LIB) Robert Keenan (FFP) Christopher Dawson (RUAP) Joshua Williams (SFP) John Irvine (ACA) Gus Kacinskas
Barwon Heads 37.1% 1.5% 18.3% 40.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5%
Beacon Point 47.7% 1.7% 6.3% 39.2% 1.3% 0.9% 1.7% 0.7% 0.6%
Clifton Springs 50.1% 2.2% 5.6% 35.8% 2.1% 0.5% 2.1% 1.3% 0.3%
Collendina 45.7% 1.1% 12.9% 36.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.8% 1.1% 0.3%
Drysdale 43.7% 1,9% 7.8% 41.0% 1.5% 0.6% 1.9% 1.1% 0.5%
Indented Head 43.5% 0.8% 11.3% 41.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Leopold 50.7% 1.6% 6.1% 36.2% 1.8% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 0.6%
Moolap 47.8% 1.7% 6.6% 36.8% 1.3% 0.4% 2.7% 2.3% 0.4%
Ocean Grove 41.4% 1.6% 16.0% 37.2% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Point Lonsdale 34.0% 0.9% 13.9% 49.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%
Portarlington 47.5% 1.1% 6.5% 39.8% 1.3% 0.5% 1.3% 0.7% 1.2%
Queenscliff 36.6% 2.2% 13.4% 46.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.5%
St Leonards 51.6% 1.1% 6.6% 36.0% 1.2% 0.6% 1.2% 1.0% 0.7%
Surfside 45.3% 2.4% 14.5% 35.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.9% 0.4%
Wallington 32.5% 1.3% 12.7% 47.2% 1.1% 1.9% 1.1% 2.0% 0.2%
Absent Votes 42.0% 3.9% 15.6% 31.4% 2.0% 0.8% 2.6% 1.3% 0.6%
Early Votes 42.9% 1.5% 7.7% 43.1% 1.4% 0.3% 1.3% 1.5% 0.3%
Postal Votes 39.5% 1.0% 6.8% 47.9% 1.9% 0.4% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5%
Provisional Votes 42.8% 5.1% 14.1% 29.5% 2.8% 0.3% 2.6% 1.5% 1.3%
TOTALS 43.6% 1.6% 9.4% 40.6% 1.6% 0.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.4%

 

Data provided by the VEC.

 

2014 two party preferred vote by polling place

  Lisa Neville (ALP) Ron Nelson (LIB)
Barwon Heads 54.9% 45.1%
Beacon Point 55.9% 44.1%
Clifton Springs 58.9% 41.1%
Collendina 59.5% 40.5%
Drysdale 54.3% 45.7%
Indented Head 54.5% 45.5%
Leopold 60.2% 39.8%
Moolap 58.2% 41.8%
Ocean Grove 56.9% 43.1%
Point Lonsdale 47.6% 52.4%
Portarlington 56.9% 43.1%
Queenscliff 50.4% 49.6%
St Leonards 60.5% 39.5%
Surfside 60.8% 39.2%
Wallington 46.1% 53.9%
Absent Votes 60.8% 39.2%
Early Votes 55.3% 44.7%
Postal Votes 47.5% 52.5%
Provisional Votes 62.6% 37.4%
TOTALS 54.8% 45.2%
 
Data provided by the VEC.

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