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Guide to the November 2018 Victorian State Election

Welcome to my guide to the Victorian State Election, 2018. This guide aims to provide comprehensive coverage of the upcoming November 24 State Election in Victoria, including electorate profiles, details of candidates standing in each electorate, past election data and predictions. Please note that this guide is a work in progress and will be progressively updated in the coming months leading up to November. Use the links below to jump to the different sections of this page.

Note: for mobile users, these pages are best viewed using the desktop version of the site.

Background - The Parties - The Campaign - The Pendulum - Legislative Council


2014 First Preference Vote Percentage by Polling Place - a sortable spreadsheet of all polling places used for the 2014 Victorian State Election and the lower house primary vote of each party, ordered according to lower house electorate (note: requires Excel).

2014 Two Party Preferred Vote Percentage by Polling Place - Coming soon



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The Parties:

Several parties will be standing candidates in this election, among them being the main three (Labor, Liberal/Nationals and the Greens).

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Throughout this guide, the parties may be abbreviated. A list of abbreviations used in this guide, and their full party name, are listed in the table below.

Abbreviation/Initials Full Party Name
ALP Australian Labor Party
LIB Liberal Party of Australia
NAT National Party of Australia
GRN Australian Greens
DLP Democratic Labour Party
AJP Animal Justice Party
ASP / RP Australian Sex Party / Reason Party
SFP / SFFP Shooters and Fishers Party / Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party
FFP / CBAC Family First / (Cory Bernard's) Australian Conservatives
AC Australian Christians
ACA / ACP Australian Country Alliance / Australian Country Party
SA Socialist Alliance
VFTW Voice For The West
ONP One Nation Party
PPV People Power Victoria / No Smart Meters
RUAP Rise Up Australia Party
VEP Voluntary Euthanasia Party
PUP Palmer United Party
LDP Liberal Democrats
CYC Australian Cyclists Party
V1LJ Vote 1 Local Jobs
TBRNR The Basics of Rock 'n' Roll

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The Campaign:

For the Labor Party, their main focus will be on retaining the gains it made at the 2014 State Election, plus possibly gaining the seats of Ripon, South Barwon and Burwood in order to offset potential losses to the Greens. If Labor are performing particularly well, seats such as Bayswater, Eildon, Mount Waverley, and Forest Hill may come into play. They will also be aiming to defend the seats of Brunswick and Richmond from the Greens.

The Liberal Party and National Party will collectively need to gain at least eight seats and retain their current seats in order to win government. Serious challenges will likely be mounted in seats which have been in Liberal hands relatively recently, such as Frankston, Carrum, Bentleigh, Mordialloc, Cranbourne, Eltham, and Monbulk. The Greens held seat of Prahran will also be a primary Liberal target. In addition, seats such as Geelong, Monbulk and Bellarine may come into play if the Liberals are on track to doing well. In addition, the Nationals will be looking to regain the seat of Morwell, in Victoria's east, as well.

The Greens seat targets will include Brunswick and Richmond, with their existing seats of Melbourne, Prahran and Northcote being seats that they will be defending intently. Outside of their primary target seats, the Greens perform strongly in the Labor-held seats of Albert Park, Pascoe Vale, Essendon, Footscray and Preston and in the Liberal-held seats of Malvern, Kew, Hawthorn and Caulfield - though with the possible exception of Albert Park, none of those seats are at any real risk of falling to the Greens in 2018.

Opinion Polling

Each data point in the graphs below represents a published opinion poll. The lines represent the running averages for each party.

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Legislative Assembly:

All 88 seats will be up for election, electing single members using full preferential voting. See the pendulum below.

2018 Victorian State Election Pendulum
Government   Opposition
Frankston (ALP) 0.5% Ripon (LIB) 0.8%
Carrum (ALP) 0.7% Morwell (NAT)** 1.8%
Bentleigh (ALP) 0.8% South Barwon (LIB) 2.9%
Richmond (ALP vs GRN) 1.9% Burwood (LIB) 3.2%
Mordialloc (ALP) 2.1% Eildon (LIB) 3.8%
Brunswick (ALP vs GRN) 2.2% Bass (LIB) 4.6%
Cranbourne (ALP) 2.3% Bayswater (LIB) 4.6%
Eltham (ALP) 2.7% Mount Waverley (LIB) 4.6%
Albert Park (ALP) 3.0% Forest Hill (LIB) 4.8%
Ivanhoe (ALP) 3.4% Caulfield (LIB) 4.9%
Yan Yean (ALP) 3.7% Ringwood (LIB) 5.1%
Macedon (ALP) 3.8% Box Hill (LIB) 5.7%
Sunbury (ALP) 4.3% FAIRLY SAFE
Mulgrave (ALP) 4.5% Sandringham (LIB) 7.3%
Narre Warren North (ALP) 4.6% Hastings (LIB) 7.6%
Bellarine (ALP) 4.8% Nepean (LIB) 7.6%
Bendigo East (ALP) 5.0% Ferntree Gully (LIB) 7.8%
Monbulk (ALP) 5.0% Mildura (NAT vs Ind) 8.0%
Narre Warren South (ALP) 5.5% Rowville (LIB) 8.4%
Wendouree (ALP) 5.8% Hawthorn (LIB) 8.6%
FAIRLY SAFE Gembrook (LIB) 9.0%
Geelong (ALP) 6.0% Croydon (LIB) 9.3%
Buninyong (ALP) 6.4% Evelyn (LIB) 9.6%
Niddire (ALP) 7.7% Benambra (LIB) 9.7%
Oakleigh (ALP) 8.2% Brighton (LIB) 9.8%
Essendon (ALP) 8.7% SAFE
SAFE Bulleen (LIB) 10.6%
Melton (ALP)* 11.2% Kew (LIB) 10.6%
Keysborough (ALP) 11.9% Polwarth (LIB) 10.6%
Bendigo West (ALP) 12.2% South-West Coast (LIB) 11.0%
Bundoora (ALP) 12.2% Narracan (LIB) 11.3%
Altona (ALP) 12.6% Warrandyte (LIB) 11.6%
Dandenong (ALP) 12.9% Mornington (LIB) 12.6%
Footscray (ALP) 14.5% Euroa (NAT) 14.5%
Tarneit (ALP) 14.6% Gippsland South (NAT) 15.7%
Werribee (ALP) 15.7% Malvern (LIB) 16.3%
Clarinda (ALP) 15.8% Ovens Valley (NAT) 16.6%
Sydenham (ALP) 16.3% Gippsland East (NAT) 17.9%
Williamstown (ALP) 16.5% VERY SAFE
Pascoe Vale (ALP) 16.8% Lowan (NAT) 21.3%
Lara (ALP) 17.1% Murray Plains (NAT) 22.4%
St Albans (ALP) 17.5%  
Mill Park (ALP) 19.9% Prahran (GRN vs LIB) 0.4%
VERY SAFE Melbourne (GRN vs ALP) 2.4%
Kororoit (ALP) 20.0% Shepparton (Ind vs NAT) 2.6%
Preston (ALP) 24.7% Northcote (GRN vs ALP) 5.6%
Broadmeadows (ALP) 27.8%    
Thomastown (ALP) 28.4%    

*Incumbent MP for Melton Don Nardella resigned from the Labor Party to sit as an independent.
**Incumbent MP for Morwell Russel Northe resigned from the National Party to sit as an independent.

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Legislative Council:

All 40 seats will be up for election, using the group voting ticket system to elect five members per region for eight regions, which are detailed below:

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