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27 November 2018
By Matt Hrkac

Victorian Election 2018: Victorian Upper House - likely outcomes

Prediction: 

  • Labor: 15 certain, as many as 18.
  • Coalition: 10 certain, as many as 12.
  • Greens: 0 certain, 1 highly likely, outside chance of 2.
  • Others: as many as 10.

Eastern Metropolitan Region

Both of the major parties currently sit at two quotas each. If there is no significant below the line leakage, it is likely that those two quotas should hold up and elect two from each of the major parties. The Greens have been knocked down to half a quota and it is unlikely they'll recover enough or get the required preference flows (due to a small Labor surplus) to retain their seat at this point - with a Druery micro likely to get the fifth spot.

Eastern Victoria Region

Both Labor and the Liberal/Nationals sit at just above two quotas each. I have indicated in the graph above that two each from the major parties are certain to be elected but the second seat for each becomes dicy if their vote declines as the count progresses. Shooters, Fishers and Farmers have likely lost their seat to another Druery micro.

Northern Metropolitan Region

Labor currently have two quotas and 0.7 of a third. They should easily retain two seats and highly likely a third. The Greens have fallen below a quota and the Liberal Party vote, despite also being under a quota, has also recovered as the count has gone on whilst the Greens have gone down. The Greens should retain their seat off the back of a large vote for the Victorian Socialists, however any further decline in either Greens or Socialists vote will put this seat at risk. The last spot will likely be between the Liberal Party and a Druery micro.

Northern Victoria Region

Labor and the Liberal/Nationals both have a quota each, as well as a significant portion of a second quota each and will both get one seat each on this basis. Shooters, Fishers and Farmers have increased their vote to nearly half a quota but look likely to be defeated at this stage unless if below the line preferences favour them significantly. The last three spots will be between Labor, Liberal/Nationals and an array of Druery micros.

South-Eastern Metropolitan Region

Labor have just over three quotas with little surplus and the Liberal Party has one quota with a significant surplus. This will certainly see two from Labor elected and highly likely a third at the expense of the Greens, whose vote has slumped significantly to around 0.3 of a quota. The Liberal Party will get one elected, with the final seat to be between the Liberal Party and a Druery micro.

Southern Metropolitan Region

The two major parties have two quotas each with likely enough of a surplus to not put the election of two of each into doubt. The final seat will come down between the Greens, on 0.75 of a quota and a Druery micro - the Greens will struggle without a significant flow of below the line preferences but are nonetheless an outside chance of retaining their seat, especially if there is a high leakage of below the line preferences favouring the Greens.

Western Metropolitan Region

Labor have two quotas and 0.84 of a third. The Liberals have one quota and 0.25 of a second. This will see at least two Labor and one Liberal elected, and highly likely a third Labor at the expense of the Greens, which saw its share of the vote fall to just over 0.5% of a quota. The final seat will be between the Greens and a Druery micro, with the latter likely prevailing.

Western Victoria Region

Labor have two quotas and around 0.3% of a third. The Liberal/Nationals have fallen below two quotas but have a surplus of over 0.8% of a quota. This will see at least two Labor elected and one Liberal elected, with possibility of a second Liberal though they aren't getting good flows of preferences above the line. It is likely the final two seats will go to micro parties.

About the author:

Matt Hrkac is a writer and activist based in Geelong who regularly contributes to Green Left Weekly. He has particular interests in politics, elections and the trade union movement and has had extensive involvement in a number of local campaigns. He is a former member of the Greens.

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