Greens 2.4% (vs ALP)
The Seat of Melbourne currently consists of the suburbs of Carlton, North Carlton, Melbourne, East Melbourne, West Melbourne, North Melbourne, Parkville, Newmarket, Kensington and Flemington, and includes Melbourne University.
Once a staunchly working class area, it had, up until the 2014 State Election, always been held by Labor, usually by very large margins. The exception to this was a brief period in 1955 when then Labor MP Tom Hayes defected to the Democratic Labour Party, before being defeated by Labor challenger Arthur Clarey in that year's state election, returning the seat back to the Labor fold.
The area constituting this electorate has undergone considerable gentrification in recent years. Since 2002, this has contributed to a declining Labor vote and a growth in the Greens vote, making the seat more marginal. At the 2014 State Election, Melbourne became the first Greens seat in the Victorian Legislative Assembly, with Greens challenger Ellen Sandell defeating Labor incumbent Jennifer Kanis.
Melbourne is a seat that it will be hard for the Greens to lose, and Ellen Sandell should also benefit from a new personal vote.
Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.
Read the full electorate profile.
About the author:
Matt Hrkac is a writer and photographer based in Geelong. He has particular interests in politics, elections, social movements and the trade union movement.