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15 November 2018
By Matt Hrkac

Victorian Election 2018: Indicative primary vote for the three main parties

I have had polls up for about a week now, asking website viewers what percentage of the state wide primary vote that they think each of the three major parties will get.

Here is a visualisation of the results so far.

Labor:

For Labor, a large majority of respondents believe that the party will get between 35% and 45% of the state wide primary vote.

In 2014, Labor achieved a primary vote of 38.1%, indicating that the party will hold its ground at worst or at best, improve its vote by a few percentage points.

Of particular note is that a significant minority of respondents are optimistic that Labor could get a primary vote of more than 50% in the upcoming state election, while very few respondents think that the party will get less than 35%.

The Coalition

The results for the Liberal Party are a little more mixed. Like with Labor, a similar large majority of respondents believed that the Coalition will get between 35% and 45% of the state wide primary vote.

However, in contrast to the Labor Party, a significant minority of respondents believe that the Coalition will get less than 35% of the state wide primary vote, while very few think that they will get more than 45%.

In general, most respondents believe that the Coalition will get a lower primary vote than Labor in this election at worst and will lose further ground compared to their 2014 result. 

The Liberal and National parties got a combined primary vote of 42% at the 2014 State Election.

The Greens

For The Greens; an overwhelming majority of respondents agree that the party will get less than 12.5% of the vote and little over 50% contend that the party will get less than 10% of the primary vote.

The Greens got 11.48% of the vote in 2014, indicating that at best the party will hold its ground and at worst, will go backwards, compared to 2014.

Very few respondents believe that the Greens primary vote will improve in any significant way - which is indicative of the trend for the party over the last decade where it has held its ground or gone backwards in state and federal elections over that time period.

*Disclaimer: the above poll results are in no way scientific and merely serve to provide an indication of what primary vote each party may achieve.

About the author:

Matt Hrkac is a writer and activist based in Geelong who regularly contributes to Green Left Weekly. He has particular interests in politics, elections and the trade union movement and has had extensive involvement in a number of local campaigns. He is a former member of the Greens.

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