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Federal By-elections Super-Saturday:

Braddon (TAS) Fremantle (WA) Longman (QLD) Mayo (SA) Perth (WA)


Your guide to the Seat of Perth By-election, 2018
Marginal. Labor 3.3%

Date: To be determined.

Historical Vote Trend | 2016 Results | Candidates | Assessment

Profile:

The Federal Division of Perth encompasses the central and inner north-eastern suburbs of the Perth suburban area.

The seat extends northeast along the north bank of the Swan River from Perth, including suburbs such as Maylands, Mount Lawley, Bayswater, Ashfield, Bedford, Morley, Beechboro and the Perth city centre. It is a primarily residential area, although contains an industrial area at Bayswater and major commercial centres in Perth and Morley

One of the original electorates created in 1901, the seat was held by the conservative parties pretty reliably until the 1930's. From the 1940's, the seat became more marginal, changing hands fairly regularly. Since the 1980's, the seat has been a reliable retain for the Labor Party. However, in the most recent elections, the seat has become precariously more marginal owing to the changing demographics of the area.

The population of the seat is highly educated, with 32.1% of the population holding a university degree compared to 20.5% of Western Australia or 22% nationwide. Most of the population come from an English speaking background, and most of the workforce are in white-collar occupations with professionals making up 30.2% of the workforce and managers making up 13.3% of the workforce (compared to the state average of 20.5% and 12% respectively)

Incumbent MP:

Tim Hammond held the seat from the 2016 Federal Election. He announced his retirement on the 2nd of May, citing family reasons.


Historical Vote Trend

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2016 Federal Election Results

Party Candidate Vote Percentage Swing
  Liberal Jeremy Quinn 35,381 42.31% +0.20%
  Labor Tim Hammond 31,248 37.36% −1.02%
  Greens Tim Clifford 14,272 17.07% +5.10%
  Liberal Democrats Mark Walmsley 1,430 1.71% +1.71%
  Online Direct Democracy Andrew Chambers 1,300 1.55% +1.55%
Two Party Preferred Result
  Labor Tim Hammond 44,602 53.33% +1.15%
  Liberal Jeremy Quinn 39,029 46.67% −1.15%

The numbers on the map below represent the two party preferred vote percentages at each polling place at the 2016 Federal Election. Red numbers represent booths that Labor won, blue numbers represent booths the Liberal Party won.

 

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Candidates:

Quick Navigation:

Patrick Gorman | Caroline Perks

The Liberal Party are not standing a candidate in the Perth by-election.

Parick GormanPatrick Gorman
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Labor.

Patrick Gorman is the Western Australian State Secretary of the Labor Party and previously worked as an Advisor to Kevin Rudd during his time as Prime Minister, as well as for United Voice as its Director of Public Affairs.


Caroline PerksCaroline Perks
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Greens.

Caroline Perks is an expert in climate policy and is a Perth local. She worked for the Western Australian Department of Environment Regulation as a policy officer dealing with adaption for a four month period in early 2014. She also worked for the Western Australian Local Government Association for several years as Climate Change Coordinator and currently works as a Senior Sustainability Officer for the City of Perth.


 

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Assessment and prediction:

Labor retain

With the Liberal Party deciding not to endorse a candidate in this by-election; Labor should retain the seat comfortably. There may, however, be a protest vote against Labor which would benefit the Greens and other minor party candidates, but it is unlikely this would be enough to prevent Labor from retaining it.

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