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Federal By-elections Super-Saturday:

Braddon (TAS) Fremantle (WA) Longman (QLD) Mayo (SA) Perth (WA)


Your guide to the Seat of Longman By-election, 2018
Marginal. Labor 0.8%

Date: To be determined.

Historical Vote Trend | 2016 Results | Candidates | Assessment

Profile:

The Division of Longman is situated to the north of Brisbane and covers much of the Moreton Bay Region, including the former Caboolture Shire and some of the former Pine Rivers. It includes the towns of Beachmere, Bribie Island, Burpengary, Dakabin, Donnybrook, Kallangur, Ningi, Toorbul, Caboolture, Morayfield, Wamuran, Woodford and Narangba.

The seat was established prior to the 1996 Federal Election, and has generally a marginal seat, regardless of which party is holding it. It does, however, generally favour the conservative parties and much like other rural Queensland seats, the electorate seems to be driven and motivated by populism - with parties such as One Nation having a historically good showing.

Incumbent MP:

Susan Lamb, since 2016. She resigned due to a court ruling indicating that her citizenship status at election was deemed have made her ineligible to sit in parliament.


Historical Vote Trend

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2016 Federal Election Results

Party Candidate Vote Percentage Swing
  Liberal National Wyatt Roy X 26,841 39.01% −5.83%
  Labor Susan Lamb 25,898 35.38% +4.73%
  One Nation Michelle Pedersen 8,293 9.42% +9.42%
  Greens Ian Bell 3,865 4.39% +0.45%
  Family First Will Smith 3,002 3.41% +1.05%
  Drug Law Reform Frances McDonald 2,677 3.04% +3.04%
  Katter's Australian Brad Kennedy 1,597 1.81% −1.01%
  Independent Greg Riddell 1,111 1.26% +1.26%
  Independent Rob Law 945 1.07% +1.07%
    Caleb Wells 830 0.94% −0.13%
  Arts Stephen Beck 228 0.26% +0.26%
Two Party Preferred Result
  Labor Susan Lamb 44,729 50.79% +7.71%
  Liberal National Wyatt Roy X 43,339 49.21% −7.71%

The numbers on the map below represent the two party preferred vote percentages at each polling place at the 2016 Federal Election. Red numbers represent the Labor Party, blue numbers represent the Liberal National Party. Note: You will need to zoom in on the map to view all individual numbers.

 

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Candidates:

Quick Navigation:

Susan Lamb | Matthew Stephen

Susan LambSusan Lamb
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Labor.

Susan Lamb had been the MP for Longman since the 2016 Federal Election. Before her election, she worked as a teacher's aid, later working in the union movement as the lead organiser for United Voice, leading the Big Steps Campaign.


Matthew StephenMatthew Stephen
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: One Nation.

Matthew Stephen previously ran as the One Nation candidate for the Queensland State Seat of Sandgate at the 2017 State Election, which drew some controversy due to racist and homophobic tweets that were revealed to had been made on social media. He is a businessman and a Caboolture local.

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Assessment and prediction:

Tossup, Labor favoured

Susan Lamb has been endorsed to recontest the seat in the by-election - hence she should benefit from a new personal vote from effectively being the incumbent MP. Furthermore, it is very rare for governments to gain seats off the opposition, even when those governments are doing well, let alone poorly.

Therefore, at the end of the day, Labor should retain Longman unless the Liberal Nationals were to put up a particularly high-profile candidate.

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