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Federal By-elections Super-Saturday:

Braddon (TAS) Fremantle (WA) Longman (QLD) Mayo (SA) Perth (WA)


Your guide to the Seat of Longman By-election, 2018
Marginal. Labor 0.8%

Date: July 28, 2018.

Historical Vote Trend | 2016 Results | Candidates | Assessment

Profile:

The Division of Longman is situated to the north of Brisbane and covers much of the Moreton Bay Region, including the former Caboolture Shire and some of the former Pine Rivers. It includes the towns of Beachmere, Bribie Island, Burpengary, Dakabin, Donnybrook, Kallangur, Ningi, Toorbul, Caboolture, Morayfield, Wamuran, Woodford and Narangba.

The seat was established prior to the 1996 Federal Election, and has generally a marginal seat, regardless of which party is holding it. It does, however, generally favour the conservative parties and much like other rural Queensland seats, the electorate seems to be driven and motivated by populism - with parties such as One Nation having a historically good showing.

Incumbent MP:

Susan Lamb, since 2016. She resigned due to a court ruling indicating that her citizenship status at election was deemed have made her ineligible to sit in parliament.

 

 


Historical Vote Trend

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2016 Federal Election Results

Party Candidate Vote Percentage Swing
  Liberal National Wyatt Roy X 26,841 39.01% −5.83%
  Labor Susan Lamb 25,898 35.38% +4.73%
  One Nation Michelle Pedersen 8,293 9.42% +9.42%
  Greens Ian Bell 3,865 4.39% +0.45%
  Family First Will Smith 3,002 3.41% +1.05%
  Drug Law Reform Frances McDonald 2,677 3.04% +3.04%
  Katter's Australian Brad Kennedy 1,597 1.81% −1.01%
  Independent Greg Riddell 1,111 1.26% +1.26%
  Independent Rob Law 945 1.07% +1.07%
    Caleb Wells 830 0.94% −0.13%
  Arts Stephen Beck 228 0.26% +0.26%
Two Party Preferred Result
  Labor Susan Lamb 44,729 50.79% +7.71%
  Liberal National Wyatt Roy X 43,339 49.21% −7.71%

The numbers on the map below represent the two party preferred vote percentages at each polling place at the 2016 Federal Election. Red numbers represent the Labor Party, blue numbers represent the Liberal National Party. Note: You will need to zoom in on the map to view all individual numbers.

 

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Candidates:

Quick Navigation:

Lloyd Russell | Jim Saleam | Gregory Bell | Jackie Perkins | James Noonan | Matthew Stephen | John Reece | Susan Lamb | Trevor Ruthenberg | Blair Verrier | Gavin Behrens

Lloyd RussellLloyd Russell
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Liberal Democrats

Lloyd Russell, initially from Central Western Queensland, is a business owner, before which he worked in the private and public sectors and has had a diverse career ranging from working in agriculture, being a Pastoral House Branch Manager, lending specialist in the State Government, undertaking export development while at the Queensland Department of Agriculture, General manager for a steel fabrication business and now a specialist family business continuity and succession consultant. He is an active member of a number of organisations notably Family Business Australia and the Australian China Business Council, a Board Director and is a life member of the Ferny Districts Cricket Club.


Jim SaleamJim Saleam
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Australia First Party.

 


Gregory BellGregory Bell
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Democratic Labour Party.

 


Jackie PerkinsJackie Perkins
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Independent.

 


James NoonanJames Noonan
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Science Party.

James Noonan is a recent graduate in Criminology and Criminal Justice, graduating from Griffith University in 2017.


Matthew StephenMatthew Stephen
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: One Nation.

Matthew Stephen previously ran as the One Nation candidate for the Queensland State Seat of Sandgate at the 2017 State Election, which drew some controversy due to media coverage of homophobic posts he had allegedly made on social media several years prior. He is a businessman and a Caboolture local.


John ReeceJohn Reece
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Australian People's Party.

John Reece was born in Lowood, QLD and is a father of two children. He was educated at Maryborough Boys High, and completed a fitter and turner trade at Walkers’ Maryborough and was a fully qualified tradesman by the age of 20. He has worked as a fitter in many industries and sales. He ran as a candidate for the seat of Longman at the 2010 Federal Election.


Susan LambSusan Lamb
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Labor.

Susan Lamb had been the MP for Longman since the 2016 Federal Election. Before her election, she worked as a teacher's aid, later working in the union movement as the lead organiser for United Voice, leading the Big Steps Campaign.


Trevor RuthenbergTrevor Ruthenberg
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Liberal National.

Trevor Ruthenberg served as a state MP for the seat of Kallanger from 2012 up until his defeat at the 2015 Queensland State Election. He worked in a fibreglass company, before joining the Royal Australian Air Force and completing a trade as an airframe fitter .He has lived in a number of countries around the world and has directed major marketing and sales projects into heavy industry application and developed innovative "go to market" strategies.


Blair VerrierBlair Verrier
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Country Party.

 


Gavin BehrensGavin Behrens
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Greens.

Gavin Behrens has worked in the IT industry for 20 years, working locally with small businesses and government agencies to assist with the streamlining community services. He previously ran as a candidate for the seat of Morayfield at the 2017 Queensland state election.

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Assessment and prediction:

Tossup, Labor favoured

Susan Lamb has been endorsed to recontest the seat in the by-election - hence she should benefit from a new personal vote from effectively being the incumbent MP. Furthermore, it is very rare for governments to gain seats off the opposition, even when those governments are doing well, let alone poorly.

Therefore, at the end of the day, Labor should retain Longman unless the Liberal Nationals were to put up a particularly high-profile candidate.

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