Running as a candidate? Got Feedback? Like this? Give $5

Federal By-elections Super-Saturday:

Braddon (TAS) Fremantle (WA) Longman (QLD) Mayo (SA) Perth (WA)


Your guide to the Seat of Braddon By-election, 2018
Marginal. Labor 2.2%

Date: July 28, 2018.

Historical Vote Trend | 2016 Results | Candidates | Assessment

Profile:

The Division of Braddon covers the north west and west of Tasmania. The cities of Burnie and Devonport are major population centres in the division. Other towns include Currie, Latrobe, Penguin, Queenstown, Rosebery, Smithton, Somerset, Stanley, Strahan, Ulverstone, Waratah, Wynyard and Zeehan.

Braddon was created prior to the 1955 Federal Election and is a particularly volatile and marginal electorate that changes hands very regularly - with the seat usually, but not exclusively, being held by the party presently in government. Usually, incumbent MPs rarely last more than two terms.

Incumbent MP:

Justine Kaey, since 2016. She resigned due to a court ruling indicating that her citizenship status at election was deemed have made her ineligible to sit in parliament.

 

 

 

 


Historical Vote Trend

Return to top


2016 Federal Election Results

Party Candidate Vote Percentage Swing
  Liberal Brett Whiteley X 26,841 41.50% −5.36%
  Labor Justine Kaey 25,898 40.05% +2.46%
  Greens Scott Jordan 4,358 6.74% +1.57%
  Recreational Fishers Glen Saltmarsh 3,701 5.72% +5.72%
  Liberal Democrats Joshua Boag 1,380 2.13% +2.13%
  Renewable Energy Clinton Rice 1,343 2.08% +2.08%
  Christian Democrats Graham Hodge 1,151 1.78% +1.78%
Two Party Preferred Result
  Labor Justine Kaey 33,759 52.20% +4.76%
  Liberal Brett Whiteley X 30,913 47.80% −4.76%

Return to top


Candidates:

Quick Navigation:

Jarrod Edwards | Brett Neal | Donna Gibbons | Joshua BoagBrett Whiteley | Craig Garland | Bruno Strangio | Justine Kaey

Jarrod EdwardsJarrod Edwards
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Greens.

Jarrod Edwards is an an indigenous land management supervisor.


Brett NealBrett Neal
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party.

 


Donna GibbonsDonna Gibbons
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Independent.

 


Joshua BoagJoshua Boag
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Liberal Democrats.

 


Brett WhiteleyBrett Whiteley
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Liberal.

Brett Whiteley was the Federal MP for Braddon from the 2013 to 2016 and served as the Government Whip in the House of Representatives from 2015 up until his defeat in 2016. He also previously served in the Tasmanian Parliament, representing the Braddon electorate, from 2002 to 2010.


Craig GarlandCraig Garland
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Independent.

Craig Garland is a fisherman. He contested the corresponding state seat of Braddon at the 2018 Tasmanian State Election.


Bruno StrangioBruno Strangio
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Australian People's Party

 


Justine KaeyJustine Kaey
Website | Facebook | Twitter

Political Party: Labor.

Justine Kaey had been the MP for Braddon since the 2016 Federal Election. Before her election, she worked in the television industry with Southern Cross Television and WIN Television in Western Australia before gaining further qualifications from Murdoch University in Environmental Impact Assessment and Environmental Management and has received a Graduate Diploma in Psychology from Monash University. She returned to Tasmania and entered politics as an assistant to then Minister for Environment the Hon Bryan Green MP. She also previously served on the Devonport City Council until the 2-16 Election.

Return to top


Assessment and prediction:

Labor favoured

Labor should be able to hold on in Braddon. It is very rare for governments to gain seats off the opposition on their best day, let alone governments that are on the nose. Furthermore, the Liberal choice of candidate who was defeated at both the state and recently Federal level may not be helpful for the Liberal Party either.

This is also the best area of Tasmania for the Jacqui Lambie Network and potentially other populist candidates and parties. Combined with a declining Greens vote, preferences could very well make the outcome of this election very unpredictable.

Return to top