Matt Hrkac's Blog

Marginal.
Labor 2.3%

Cranbourne is located in the south-east of Melbourne and includes the suburbs of Cranbourne, Carrum Downs, Langwarrin, Seaford, Skye, and Frankston North.

The district was created prior to the 1992 election, when it was gained by the Liberal Party - who would hold the seat until Labor's landslide victory at the 2002 state election. Labor have held Cranbourne since the 2002 election and it remains a marginal electorate.

The demographics of the electorate are what can be considered skilled working class, with trades workers constituting the majority of the workforce. Machinery operators, labourers and community workers are also over-represented compared to the state average. The electorate has large populations of Indians and Sri Lankins; with the aforementioned groups being over-represented in this electorate compared to the state average.

Although this is a marginal seat that has been held by the Liberal Party relatively recently, it was a seat that they weren't able to gain at the 2010 State Election; indicating that this seat has firmed up for Labor over recent elections.

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal.
Labor 2.2% 
(vs Greens)

The seat of Brunswick is located within the inner northern suburbs of Melbourne, and it includes the suburbs of Brunswick, Brunswick East, and Brunswick West, and parts of Coburg, Fitzroy North, Parkville and Pascoe Vale South.

Brunswick has existed in three different incarnations and during all three periods of existence, has always been retained and held by the Labor Party. It was held briefly, in 1955, by the Democratic Labour Party when sitting member Peter Randles split from Labor. The seat, however, was abolished leading up to that year's state election and would not come into existence again until 1976.

The current incarnation of Brunswick has existed since 2002. During this period, the seat has seen considerable gentrification but remains one of the strongest areas in Victoria for the political left; with an increasing Greens vote eroding Labor's primary vote, as well as their margin, over successive elections to date.

Brunswick is a top-tier target for the Greens and based on the margin as well as trends favouring the Greens in the inner suburbs of Melbourne, Labor may find it hard to hold on. However, recent results in the federal seat of Batman show that a Greens gain is by no means assured in the face of a strong Labor campaign targeting left-leaning voters and the Greens shouldn't take the seat for granted.

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal.
Labor 2.1%

Mordialloc is an electorate located on the eastern bayside of Melbourne. It includes the suburbs of Braeside, Dingley Village, Mordialloc and Parkdale; and parts of Cheltenham, Heatherton, Highett, Mentone and Springvale South.

The demographics of the electorate almost mirror the rest of Victoria; in terms of education, ethnicity and employment.

The electorate's voting patterns thus largely reflect the statewide trend, making the seat a marginal electorate that usually changes hands with a change of government.

 

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal.
Labor 1.9% 
(vs Greens)

Richmond is an electorate located within the inner east of Melbourne, encompassing the suburbs of Richmond, Cremorne, Burnley, Abbotsford, Collingwood, Clifton Hill, North Fitzroy and Fitzroy.

The seat has been in existence since 1904, and within that time, it has been held by the Australian Labor Party by very safe margins. The only time that the seat hasn't been held by the Labor Party, in its history, was in 1955, when then-Labor MP Frank Scully defected to the Democratic Labour Party. Scully went on to retain the seat for the DLP in that year's State Election, before being defeated in the 1958 State Election.

More recently, driven by rapid gentrification of the area; The Greens have been gradually increasing their electoral support, which is posing a significant threat to Labor's hold on the seat. At the 2002 State Election, the Greens, on the back of Liberal preferences, managed to bring the Labor to a margin of 3.1%.

In 2006, Labor was able to regain some of the support it lost at the previous election but it would be a short lived reprieve. Support for Labor continued to erode to The Greens over the 2010 and 2014 Elections.

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal.
Labor 0.8%

The Bentleigh electorate is located in the south east of Melbourne and includes the suburbs of Bentleigh, Hampton East, McKinnon, and Moorabbin, and parts of Bentleigh East, Brighton East and Ormond. It also includes the Moorabbin campus of the Monash Medical Centre.

The seat has historically been a key marginal seat and is usually held by whichever party is in government. It will be a key battleground seat for both the government, as well as the opposition.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal.
Liberal 0.8%

The electorate of Ripon is situated within the rural area north west of Ballarat. It includes the towns of Bealiba, Beaufort, Bridgewater on Loddon, Buangor, Cardigan, Carisbrook, Charlton, Clunes, Dunolly, Eddington, Elmhurst, Glenorchy, Great Western, Inglewood, Landsborough, Lexton, Lucas, Marnoo, Miners Rest, Moonambel, Newbridge, Snake Valley, Stuart Mill, Talbot, Tarnagulla and Wedderburn. It also includes the main population centres of Creswick, Ararat, Maryborough, Donald, Bridgewater, St Arnaud and Stawell.

Ripon is generally a marginal but conservative seat usually held by the Liberal Party, though Labor are occasionally able to gain and hold it for extended periods. Labor held the seat from 1999 to 2014, when it was regained by the Liberal Party (the only Liberal gain at the 2014 State Election) after the prior redistribution turned it into a notional Liberal seat. Before 1999, the seat was held by the Liberal Party uninterrupted for more than 20 years.

The area constituting this electorate is known for agriculture, wine making, timber industries, manufacturing, wool production, paper milling, knitting mills and tourism

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal.
Greens 0.4% 
(vs Liberal)

Prahran is an electorate located in the inner south-east of Melbourne, taking in the suburbs of South Yarra, Prahran and Windsor, as well as parts of Balaclava, St Kilda, St Kilda East and Toorak (west of Orrong Rd). At 12 km², it is the state's smallest electorate.

Tending to be a marginal seat throughout its history, recent elections has seen it become safer for the Liberal Party, owing to the considerable gentrification in the area making the seat more conservative. Labor managed to gain Prahran in the midst of Labor's landslide win across the state in 2002, ending the Liberal Party's 17 year hold on the seat.

Labor held the seat for two terms, before it returned to the Liberal Party in 2010. In 2014, however, the Liberal Party was defeated once again, this time by the Greens, who were able to get into second place on minor party preferences in the process of the preference distribution and ultimately going on to gain it on Labor Party preferences.

 

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal
Labor 0.7%

Carrum is located in the outer south east of Melbourne and consists of the suburbs of Bangholme, Bonbeach, Carrum, Carrum Downs, Patterson Lakes, Sandhurst, Seaford and Skye.

The seat was once historically safe for the Labor Party, but demographic changes in the area have seen the seat become more marginal. It is currently the second most marginal seat in the state.

Today, Carrum is a seat that is usually held by whichever party forms government.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal
Labor 0.5%

Frankston is an electorate located in the south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne, and includes the suburbs of Frankston and Frankston South. It is currently the most marginal seat in Victoria and will be a top tier target for both of the major parties.

The seat is a classic example of a bellwether seat, usually held by whichever party is in government. 

The demographics of the electorate is what can be considered skilled working-class. Most who reside here are Australian born and English-speaking and are irreligious. Most have either completed year 12 or hold a trade certificate, with those having university degrees falling well below the state average.

 

 

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




It's been another quiet week on the election announcement front, but to note is as follows:

  • - Lloyd Davies has been announced, without much fan-fare, as the Victorian Greens' lead candidate for Western Victoria Region. Davies contested the seat at then 2014 State Election, achieving around 9% of the vote but missing out after a series of complex preferencing arrangements delivered the seat to Vote 1 Local Jobs' James Purcell.

    It is worth noting the rather interesting strategy of the Greens this time around, choosing to quietly announce their candidate and leaving the announcement relatively late for a seat they are were intending to target.
     
  • - Sticking with the area, but moving into the lower house, Sarah Hathway has been confirmed as the Victorian Socialists candidate for the seat of Geelong, with a public formal announcement imminent. Hathway previously contested the seat of Geelong at the 2014 State Election, representing Socialist Alliance, and was also a candidate for the Geelong Council Elections.
     
  • - City of Wyndham Councillor Tony Hooper has announced that he will be standing as an independent candidate for the seat of Altona.




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