Matt Hrkac's Blog

Marginal.
Greens 0.4% 
(vs Liberal)

Prahran is an electorate located in the inner south-east of Melbourne, taking in the suburbs of South Yarra, Prahran and Windsor, as well as parts of Balaclava, St Kilda, St Kilda East and Toorak (west of Orrong Rd). At 12 km², it is the state's smallest electorate.

Tending to be a marginal seat throughout its history, recent elections has seen it become safer for the Liberal Party, owing to the considerable gentrification in the area making the seat more conservative. Labor managed to gain Prahran in the midst of Labor's landslide win across the state in 2002, ending the Liberal Party's 17 year hold on the seat.

Labor held the seat for two terms, before it returned to the Liberal Party in 2010. In 2014, however, the Liberal Party was defeated once again, this time by the Greens, who were able to get into second place on minor party preferences in the process of the preference distribution and ultimately going on to gain it on Labor Party preferences.

 

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal
Labor 0.7%

Carrum is located in the outer south east of Melbourne and consists of the suburbs of Bangholme, Bonbeach, Carrum, Carrum Downs, Patterson Lakes, Sandhurst, Seaford and Skye.

The seat was once historically safe for the Labor Party, but demographic changes in the area have seen the seat become more marginal. It is currently the second most marginal seat in the state.

Today, Carrum is a seat that is usually held by whichever party forms government.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal
Labor 0.5%

Frankston is an electorate located in the south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne, and includes the suburbs of Frankston and Frankston South. It is currently the most marginal seat in Victoria and will be a top tier target for both of the major parties.

The seat is a classic example of a bellwether seat, usually held by whichever party is in government. 

The demographics of the electorate is what can be considered skilled working-class. Most who reside here are Australian born and English-speaking and are irreligious. Most have either completed year 12 or hold a trade certificate, with those having university degrees falling well below the state average.

 

 

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




It's been another quiet week on the election announcement front, but to note is as follows:

  • - Lloyd Davies has been announced, without much fan-fare, as the Victorian Greens' lead candidate for Western Victoria Region. Davies contested the seat at then 2014 State Election, achieving around 9% of the vote but missing out after a series of complex preferencing arrangements delivered the seat to Vote 1 Local Jobs' James Purcell.

    It is worth noting the rather interesting strategy of the Greens this time around, choosing to quietly announce their candidate and leaving the announcement relatively late for a seat they are were intending to target.
     
  • - Sticking with the area, but moving into the lower house, Sarah Hathway has been confirmed as the Victorian Socialists candidate for the seat of Geelong, with a public formal announcement imminent. Hathway previously contested the seat of Geelong at the 2014 State Election, representing Socialist Alliance, and was also a candidate for the Geelong Council Elections.
     
  • - City of Wyndham Councillor Tony Hooper has announced that he will be standing as an independent candidate for the seat of Altona.




There is now less than three months to go until the 2018 Victorian State Election. We are currently in a deep lull in terms of news on the preselection and announcement of candidates front, but there has been a trickle of news before what is likely to be a bombardment.

This is as follows:

  • - Another Moreland City Councillor, who is serving as Mayor, John Kavanagh, announced his intention to run as an independent candidate for the seat of Pascoe Vale, joining his colleague Oscar Yildiz, who is also standing as an independent for this seat.
     
  • - Tim Gooden has been confirmed as the lead candidate for the Western Victoria Region, representing the Victorian Socialists, with a not-yet-confirmed second candidate. Gooden is the former Secretary of the Geelong Trades Hall Council and long time member of Socialist Alliance.
     
  • - Keeping the subject on Western Victoria: the Liberal/National Party ticket will be headed by Surf Coast Shire councillor Bev McArthur, replacing the embattled incumbent Simon Ramsey as number one on the ticket - who is standing aside due to drink-driving charges.
     
  • - Moorabool Shire councillor and local business owner Jarrod Bingham has announced his intention to run as an independent candidate for the seat of Melton.

 




There is not too much in the way of news relating to preselections this week. The major parties have seemingly entered into a lull, with candidates preselected for the seats they are targeting and with minor parties likely not preselecting their candidates until closer to the election. The major parties also likely won't preselect candidates for the other seats (mostly the safe seats on either side of the pendulum) until closer to election day.

The latest bits of news:

  • - It has been reported in the Herald Sun that City of Moreland Councillor Oscar Yildiz is tipped to announce his candidacy as an independent for the seat of Pascoe Vale at a June 16 fundraiser. Yildiz is a former member of the Labor Party.
     
  • - There is also speculation abound that the Victorian Socialists are preparing to broaden their electoral presence beyond the Northern Metropolitan Region, with the party expected to run tickets in several other upper house regions - something I had always expected to happen, just not so soon. The party is also eying lower house seats within the Northern Metropolitan Region, with Brunswick and Richmond so far said to be seats where the party is keen to stand candidates. I am unaware of any possible candidates at this stage. Support for the Victorian Socialists campaign continues to grow, with the National Union of Workers (NUW) donating $5,000 to the party this week.

Just as a closing note: my guide to the Victorian state election can be found here.




There is now half a year to go until the next Victorian State Election and the major parties are already in election mode. For all intents and purposes, my guide to the election is now 'complete' - view it here.

In state preselection news, which will be a weekly feature (if applicable) on this blog from now on to cover preselection developments from all parties:

- In terms of numbers of seats where the main parties have candidates preselected, the Coalition has candidates preselected in 67 out of 88 seats including incumbent MPs, Labor have candidates in 58 seats including incumbent MPs. In both cases, candidates have been preselected in mostly marginal seats - though interestingly the Liberals have candidates in seats such as Altona and Tarneit and Essendon, in Melbourne's western suburbs, despite their status as safe Labor seats. No Labor candidates have been announced in any safe Liberal seats as of yet.

- The Greens are also steadily rolling out their candidates across a range of seats. So far, they have preselected in 29 lower house seats including incumbent MPs, mostly in safe seats for both main parties and in metropolitan Melbourne, and only a handful in marginal Liberal vs Labor contests so far.

- The Animal Justice Party have preselected the first of their candidates across a handful of lower house electorates and three upper house regions. The AJP is aspiring to have candidates in every lower house electorate as well as every upper house region. Andy Meddick, who has stood for the party on numerous occasions at the state and Federal level, is leading the Western Victoria Region ticket; Bruce Poon, president of the AJP and former Melbourne Lord Mayoral candidate, is leading the AJP's Northern Metropolitan Region ticket and Ben Schultz who stood for election to Port Phillip Council in 2016, is leading the party's Southern Metropolitan Region ticket.

- Two independent candidates have also announced their intention to run in the election for lower house electorates: former staffer to Federal MP for Indi Cathy McGowan, Jacqui Hawkins, in Benambra and Ballarat-based drug and alcohol worker Brendan Eckel in Buninyong.

I also maintain a database of candidates, which is regularly updated when new candidates are declared.




July 28 has today been announced as the 'Super Saturday' of Federal by-elections, triggered by the resignation of four lower house MPs who were implicated in the duel citizenship crisis following the High Court's ruling that Katy Gallagher was ineligible to sit in Parliament due to her not renouncing her British citizenship in time. These by-elections are as follows:

These above by-elections, along with Perth, will take place on a single Saturday.

Guides for all of these by-elections have now been posted. Follow the links above to each of the guides.




More than 100,000 union members and supporters marched the streets of Melbourne on the 9th of May in the campaign to Change The Rules. View the full photo album.

Crowds stretch as far as the eye can see.

Victorian Trades Hall Council (VTHC) Luke Hilakari fronts the media

Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) Secretary, Sally McManus, fronts the media

View the full photo album.




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