Matt Hrkac's Blog

Marginal. 
Labor 3.0%

Covering an area of 22 square kilometres in inner suburban Melbourne, the Albert Park electorate includes the suburbs of Albert Park, Middle Park, Port Melbourne, St Kilda West, Southbank, South Melbourne, South Wharf, and parts of St Kilda.

Albert Park has been held by Labor since the 1950's. Like with much of inner city Melbourne, the area has undergone considerable gentrification in recent years. This has contributed to a gradual decline in Labor's primary vote and a steady increase in both the Liberals and Greens primary votes. This has seen the seat become a lot more marginal in recent elections, with potential for both the Liberals or the Greens to take the seat in what will be a real three way contest in 2018.

The seat has been held by Labor since the 1950's. However, demographic changes have seen the seat become more marginal in recent elections. Labor would be favoured to hold on, however any significant increase in the Liberal vote will put them at risk of losing the seat. Support for The Greens has also been growing in recent years, however their primary vote would have to increase significantly for them to be a threat.

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal. 
Liberal 2.9%

South Barwon covers the Geelong suburbs of Grovedale, Highton, and Waurn Ponds and the growth area of Armstrong Creek, and extends out to the Surf Coast region, including the towns of Torquay and Jan Juc and the rural towns of Barrabool, Bellbrae, Connewarre, Gnarwarre, Modewarre, Moriac and Mount Moriac.

Once a relatively safe Liberal seat, the South Barwon district has become increasingly marginal in recent years. Labor were able to win the seat for the first time at the 2002 State Election and also successfully retained it in 2006, before the Liberal Party regained it in 2010.

Due to demographic changes, South Barwon represents the most likely gain for the Labor Party in 2018 and will be a key target for the party; who are banking on the profile of former Federal MP for Corangamite, Darren Cheeseman, to help them get over the line.

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal. 
Independent 2.4% (vs Nationals)

Located in northern Victoria, Shepparton includes the towns of Ardmona, Barmah, Congupna, Dookie, Katunga, Kialla, Mooroopna, Nathalia, Picola, Shepparton, Strathmerton, Tallygaroopna, Tatura and Toolamba.

The current incarnation of the Shepparton electorate was always a safe Nationals seat. However, in recent elections, third parties (particularly the Country Alliance) and independents posed an increasing threat to the Nationals hold on the seat. Suzanna Sheed won the seat at the 2014 State Election, ending the Nationals hold on the seat.

Most independents, once they gain a seat, who don't draw too much controversy tend to retain their seat for as long as they stand for re-election, and this is true particularly of independent MPs who hold seats in rural areas. Suzanna Sheed will very likely not only hold on, but increase her margin in the upcoming election.

 

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal.
Greens 2.4% (vs ALP)

The Seat of Melbourne currently consists of the suburbs of Carlton, North Carlton, Melbourne, East Melbourne, West Melbourne, North Melbourne, Parkville, Newmarket, Kensington and Flemington, and includes Melbourne University.

Once a staunchly working class area, it had, up until the 2014 State Election, always been held by Labor, usually by very large margins. The exception to this was a brief period in 1955 when then Labor MP Tom Hayes defected to the Democratic Labour Party, before being defeated by Labor challenger Arthur Clarey in that year's state election, returning the seat back to the Labor fold. 

The area constituting this electorate has undergone considerable gentrification in recent years. Since 2002, this has contributed to a declining Labor vote and a growth in the Greens vote, making the seat more marginal. At the 2014 State Election, Melbourne became the first Greens seat in the Victorian Legislative Assembly, with Greens challenger Ellen Sandell defeating Labor incumbent Jennifer Kanis.

Melbourne is a seat that it will be hard for the Greens to lose, and Ellen Sandell should also benefit from a new personal vote.

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal.
Labor 2.3%

Cranbourne is located in the south-east of Melbourne and includes the suburbs of Cranbourne, Carrum Downs, Langwarrin, Seaford, Skye, and Frankston North.

The district was created prior to the 1992 election, when it was gained by the Liberal Party - who would hold the seat until Labor's landslide victory at the 2002 state election. Labor have held Cranbourne since the 2002 election and it remains a marginal electorate.

The demographics of the electorate are what can be considered skilled working class, with trades workers constituting the majority of the workforce. Machinery operators, labourers and community workers are also over-represented compared to the state average. The electorate has large populations of Indians and Sri Lankins; with the aforementioned groups being over-represented in this electorate compared to the state average.

Although this is a marginal seat that has been held by the Liberal Party relatively recently, it was a seat that they weren't able to gain at the 2010 State Election; indicating that this seat has firmed up for Labor over recent elections.

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal.
Labor 2.2% 
(vs Greens)

The seat of Brunswick is located within the inner northern suburbs of Melbourne, and it includes the suburbs of Brunswick, Brunswick East, and Brunswick West, and parts of Coburg, Fitzroy North, Parkville and Pascoe Vale South.

Brunswick has existed in three different incarnations and during all three periods of existence, has always been retained and held by the Labor Party. It was held briefly, in 1955, by the Democratic Labour Party when sitting member Peter Randles split from Labor. The seat, however, was abolished leading up to that year's state election and would not come into existence again until 1976.

The current incarnation of Brunswick has existed since 2002. During this period, the seat has seen considerable gentrification but remains one of the strongest areas in Victoria for the political left; with an increasing Greens vote eroding Labor's primary vote, as well as their margin, over successive elections to date.

Brunswick is a top-tier target for the Greens and based on the margin as well as trends favouring the Greens in the inner suburbs of Melbourne, Labor may find it hard to hold on. However, recent results in the federal seat of Batman show that a Greens gain is by no means assured in the face of a strong Labor campaign targeting left-leaning voters and the Greens shouldn't take the seat for granted.

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal.
Labor 2.1%

Mordialloc is an electorate located on the eastern bayside of Melbourne. It includes the suburbs of Braeside, Dingley Village, Mordialloc and Parkdale; and parts of Cheltenham, Heatherton, Highett, Mentone and Springvale South.

The demographics of the electorate almost mirror the rest of Victoria; in terms of education, ethnicity and employment.

The electorate's voting patterns thus largely reflect the statewide trend, making the seat a marginal electorate that usually changes hands with a change of government.

 

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal.
Labor 1.9% 
(vs Greens)

Richmond is an electorate located within the inner east of Melbourne, encompassing the suburbs of Richmond, Cremorne, Burnley, Abbotsford, Collingwood, Clifton Hill, North Fitzroy and Fitzroy.

The seat has been in existence since 1904, and within that time, it has been held by the Australian Labor Party by very safe margins. The only time that the seat hasn't been held by the Labor Party, in its history, was in 1955, when then-Labor MP Frank Scully defected to the Democratic Labour Party. Scully went on to retain the seat for the DLP in that year's State Election, before being defeated in the 1958 State Election.

More recently, driven by rapid gentrification of the area; The Greens have been gradually increasing their electoral support, which is posing a significant threat to Labor's hold on the seat. At the 2002 State Election, the Greens, on the back of Liberal preferences, managed to bring the Labor to a margin of 3.1%.

In 2006, Labor was able to regain some of the support it lost at the previous election but it would be a short lived reprieve. Support for Labor continued to erode to The Greens over the 2010 and 2014 Elections.

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal.
Labor 0.8%

The Bentleigh electorate is located in the south east of Melbourne and includes the suburbs of Bentleigh, Hampton East, McKinnon, and Moorabbin, and parts of Bentleigh East, Brighton East and Ormond. It also includes the Moorabbin campus of the Monash Medical Centre.

The seat has historically been a key marginal seat and is usually held by whichever party is in government. It will be a key battleground seat for both the government, as well as the opposition.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal.
Liberal 0.8%

The electorate of Ripon is situated within the rural area north west of Ballarat. It includes the towns of Bealiba, Beaufort, Bridgewater on Loddon, Buangor, Cardigan, Carisbrook, Charlton, Clunes, Dunolly, Eddington, Elmhurst, Glenorchy, Great Western, Inglewood, Landsborough, Lexton, Lucas, Marnoo, Miners Rest, Moonambel, Newbridge, Snake Valley, Stuart Mill, Talbot, Tarnagulla and Wedderburn. It also includes the main population centres of Creswick, Ararat, Maryborough, Donald, Bridgewater, St Arnaud and Stawell.

Ripon is generally a marginal but conservative seat usually held by the Liberal Party, though Labor are occasionally able to gain and hold it for extended periods. Labor held the seat from 1999 to 2014, when it was regained by the Liberal Party (the only Liberal gain at the 2014 State Election) after the prior redistribution turned it into a notional Liberal seat. Before 1999, the seat was held by the Liberal Party uninterrupted for more than 20 years.

The area constituting this electorate is known for agriculture, wine making, timber industries, manufacturing, wool production, paper milling, knitting mills and tourism

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




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