Matt Hrkac's Blog

A Newspoll of Victorian state voting intentions (courtesy of GhostWhoVotes on Twitter) with just 25 days to go until the State Election, has shown that Labor is on the front foot and has pulled well and truely streets ahead in its fight to retain government in Victoria. It leads the Coalition 54% to 46% on a two party preferred basis, a swing of +2% to Labor since 2014 and +3% since the last Newspoll.

On a uniform swing, the seats of Ripon and Morwell would be gained by Labor; in addition to the party holding on to their existing seats where the main opposition is the Coalition.

On the primary vote, Labor sits at 41% (a swing of +2.9% since the last election, and +1% since the last Newspoll), the Coalition on 39% (-3% and -2%) and The Greens on 11% (-0.5% and steady).

The poll also asked questions on approval and disapproval of each leader, as well as questions on preferred Premier.

On the former: Danial Andrews has a +5 net approval rating with 45% (+2 since last Newspoll) approving of his leadership, and 40% (-7) disapproving. Matthew Guy has a net approval rating of -15, with 31% (-1) approving of his leadership and 46% (+1) disapproving.

On the latter question: Daniel Andrews leads Matthew Guy as preferred Premier by a large margin - 45% (+4 since the last Newspoll) to 29% (-5).




Photos from the refugee rally in Melbourne on Saturday, October 27, organised by the Refugee Action Collective (RAC) calling for the closure of the Manus Island and Nauru off-shore detention centres and to settle asylum seekers in Australia.

Victorian Allied Health Professionals Association (VAHPA) Secretary Craig McGregor.

A couple of opponents gatecrashed the rally and attempted to intimidate the attendees by filming them. They were however soundly outnumbered and the rally proceeded undeterred.

The rally was attended by at least 2,000 people calling for the closure of the Manus Island and Nauru off-shore refugee detention camps.

View full album.




Courtesy of GhostWhoVotes on Twitter, a new ReachTEL poll released tonight of Victorian state voting intentions shows the Labor Party leading the Coalition on a two party preferred basis, 52% to 48%. This result, completely unchanged since the 2014 State Election, indicates that the Labor Party is on track to retaining government at the upcoming November state election. 

On primary vote, the Coalition sits on 39.4% (−2.6% since the 2014 State Election), Labor on 37.6% (−0.5) and The Greens on 10.9% (−0.58). The poll also shows the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party sitting on 4% of the vote, Derryn Hinch's Justice Party on 2%, Reason Party on 0.9 and collective others on 4.2%.

Daniel Andrews leads on the question of preferred Premier, with 51.3% of respondents preferring him over Matthew Guy. 48.7% of respondents prefer Matthew Guy.




Marginal. 
Labor 3.8%

The seat of Macedon covers the rural area immediately to the north west of Melbourne and includes the towns of Daylesford, Hepburn Springs, Macedon, Malmsbury, Mount Macedon, Riddells Creek, Romsey, Taradale, Toolern Vale, Trentham and Woodend. The economy of the area constituting this electorate is based largely on tourism.

Macedon was created in 2002, replacing the seat of Gisborne. Like it's predecessor, Macedon is a marginal electorate and Labor have held the area uninterrupted since the 1999 election. Prior to that, the seat was a reliable Liberal seat. Notably, Athol Guy, who is a member of the band The Seekers, retained the seat for the Liberal Party at the 1971 by election and held it until he resigned at the 1979 State Election.

Labor's success in this seat in recent years is largely owed to the changing demographics of much of the area. The seat has always been held by the Labor party, despite its status as a marginal electorate.

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal. 
Labor 3.4%

The Ivanhoe electorate is located in the north-eastern suburbs of Melbourne and includes the suburbs of Heidelberg, Ivanhoe, Rosanna and Macleod.

Once a seat safely held by the Liberal Party, Labor have gradually been eroding at their margin after successive electorate boundary changes have made the seat more favourable for the Labor Party. It is now a reliable, albeit marginal, seat for Labor, who have held it since 1996.

Though the seat is notionally a marginal seat, it will be hard ask for the Liberal Party to gain. The seat has firmed up for Labor over recent elections.

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal. 
Liberal 3.2%

In the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, Burwood includes the suburbs of Ashburton, Ashwood, Box Hill South, Burwood, and parts of Camberwell, Chadstone, Glen Iris, and Surrey Hills.

A marginal seat in recent years, Burwood was held by Jeff Kennett from 1976, who was Premier from 1992 to 1999, when he resigned from Parliament following the government's defeat in that year's state election. In the ensuring by-election, Labor gained the seat and held it for the next 11 years, until the defeat of the Bracks/Brumby Government in 2010. The Liberal Party were able to retain the seat in 2014, despite being voted out of government.

The Liberal Party would be favoured to hold on in Burwood, however it will be one of those seats that Labor are hoping to gain in 2018 to offset any potential losses to the Greens in the inner city Melbourne electorates, ensuring they retain a majority. It will be a tough ask, though certainly by no means impossible, for an incumbent government to pull off.

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal. 
Labor 3.0%

Covering an area of 22 square kilometres in inner suburban Melbourne, the Albert Park electorate includes the suburbs of Albert Park, Middle Park, Port Melbourne, St Kilda West, Southbank, South Melbourne, South Wharf, and parts of St Kilda.

Albert Park has been held by Labor since the 1950's. Like with much of inner city Melbourne, the area has undergone considerable gentrification in recent years. This has contributed to a gradual decline in Labor's primary vote and a steady increase in both the Liberals and Greens primary votes. This has seen the seat become a lot more marginal in recent elections, with potential for both the Liberals or the Greens to take the seat in what will be a real three way contest in 2018.

The seat has been held by Labor since the 1950's. However, demographic changes have seen the seat become more marginal in recent elections. Labor would be favoured to hold on, however any significant increase in the Liberal vote will put them at risk of losing the seat. Support for The Greens has also been growing in recent years, however their primary vote would have to increase significantly for them to be a threat.

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal. 
Liberal 2.9%

South Barwon covers the Geelong suburbs of Grovedale, Highton, and Waurn Ponds and the growth area of Armstrong Creek, and extends out to the Surf Coast region, including the towns of Torquay and Jan Juc and the rural towns of Barrabool, Bellbrae, Connewarre, Gnarwarre, Modewarre, Moriac and Mount Moriac.

Once a relatively safe Liberal seat, the South Barwon district has become increasingly marginal in recent years. Labor were able to win the seat for the first time at the 2002 State Election and also successfully retained it in 2006, before the Liberal Party regained it in 2010.

Due to demographic changes, South Barwon represents the most likely gain for the Labor Party in 2018 and will be a key target for the party; who are banking on the profile of former Federal MP for Corangamite, Darren Cheeseman, to help them get over the line.

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal. 
Independent 2.4% (vs Nationals)

Located in northern Victoria, Shepparton includes the towns of Ardmona, Barmah, Congupna, Dookie, Katunga, Kialla, Mooroopna, Nathalia, Picola, Shepparton, Strathmerton, Tallygaroopna, Tatura and Toolamba.

The current incarnation of the Shepparton electorate was always a safe Nationals seat. However, in recent elections, third parties (particularly the Country Alliance) and independents posed an increasing threat to the Nationals hold on the seat. Suzanna Sheed won the seat at the 2014 State Election, ending the Nationals hold on the seat.

Most independents, once they gain a seat, who don't draw too much controversy tend to retain their seat for as long as they stand for re-election, and this is true particularly of independent MPs who hold seats in rural areas. Suzanna Sheed will very likely not only hold on, but increase her margin in the upcoming election.

 

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal.
Greens 2.4% (vs ALP)

The Seat of Melbourne currently consists of the suburbs of Carlton, North Carlton, Melbourne, East Melbourne, West Melbourne, North Melbourne, Parkville, Newmarket, Kensington and Flemington, and includes Melbourne University.

Once a staunchly working class area, it had, up until the 2014 State Election, always been held by Labor, usually by very large margins. The exception to this was a brief period in 1955 when then Labor MP Tom Hayes defected to the Democratic Labour Party, before being defeated by Labor challenger Arthur Clarey in that year's state election, returning the seat back to the Labor fold. 

The area constituting this electorate has undergone considerable gentrification in recent years. Since 2002, this has contributed to a declining Labor vote and a growth in the Greens vote, making the seat more marginal. At the 2014 State Election, Melbourne became the first Greens seat in the Victorian Legislative Assembly, with Greens challenger Ellen Sandell defeating Labor incumbent Jennifer Kanis.

Melbourne is a seat that it will be hard for the Greens to lose, and Ellen Sandell should also benefit from a new personal vote.

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




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