Matt Hrkac's Blog

Marginal. 
Labor 3.8%

The seat of Macedon covers the rural area immediately to the north west of Melbourne and includes the towns of Daylesford, Hepburn Springs, Macedon, Malmsbury, Mount Macedon, Riddells Creek, Romsey, Taradale, Toolern Vale, Trentham and Woodend. The economy of the area constituting this electorate is based largely on tourism.

Macedon was created in 2002, replacing the seat of Gisborne. Like it's predecessor, Macedon is a marginal electorate and Labor have held the area uninterrupted since the 1999 election. Prior to that, the seat was a reliable Liberal seat. Notably, Athol Guy, who is a member of the band The Seekers, retained the seat for the Liberal Party at the 1971 by election and held it until he resigned at the 1979 State Election.

Labor's success in this seat in recent years is largely owed to the changing demographics of much of the area. The seat has always been held by the Labor party, despite its status as a marginal electorate.

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal. 
Labor 3.4%

The Ivanhoe electorate is located in the north-eastern suburbs of Melbourne and includes the suburbs of Heidelberg, Ivanhoe, Rosanna and Macleod.

Once a seat safely held by the Liberal Party, Labor have gradually been eroding at their margin after successive electorate boundary changes have made the seat more favourable for the Labor Party. It is now a reliable, albeit marginal, seat for Labor, who have held it since 1996.

Though the seat is notionally a marginal seat, it will be hard ask for the Liberal Party to gain. The seat has firmed up for Labor over recent elections.

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal. 
Liberal 3.2%

In the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, Burwood includes the suburbs of Ashburton, Ashwood, Box Hill South, Burwood, and parts of Camberwell, Chadstone, Glen Iris, and Surrey Hills.

A marginal seat in recent years, Burwood was held by Jeff Kennett from 1976, who was Premier from 1992 to 1999, when he resigned from Parliament following the government's defeat in that year's state election. In the ensuring by-election, Labor gained the seat and held it for the next 11 years, until the defeat of the Bracks/Brumby Government in 2010. The Liberal Party were able to retain the seat in 2014, despite being voted out of government.

The Liberal Party would be favoured to hold on in Burwood, however it will be one of those seats that Labor are hoping to gain in 2018 to offset any potential losses to the Greens in the inner city Melbourne electorates, ensuring they retain a majority. It will be a tough ask, though certainly by no means impossible, for an incumbent government to pull off.

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal. 
Labor 3.0%

Covering an area of 22 square kilometres in inner suburban Melbourne, the Albert Park electorate includes the suburbs of Albert Park, Middle Park, Port Melbourne, St Kilda West, Southbank, South Melbourne, South Wharf, and parts of St Kilda.

Albert Park has been held by Labor since the 1950's. Like with much of inner city Melbourne, the area has undergone considerable gentrification in recent years. This has contributed to a gradual decline in Labor's primary vote and a steady increase in both the Liberals and Greens primary votes. This has seen the seat become a lot more marginal in recent elections, with potential for both the Liberals or the Greens to take the seat in what will be a real three way contest in 2018.

The seat has been held by Labor since the 1950's. However, demographic changes have seen the seat become more marginal in recent elections. Labor would be favoured to hold on, however any significant increase in the Liberal vote will put them at risk of losing the seat. Support for The Greens has also been growing in recent years, however their primary vote would have to increase significantly for them to be a threat.

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal. 
Liberal 2.9%

South Barwon covers the Geelong suburbs of Grovedale, Highton, and Waurn Ponds and the growth area of Armstrong Creek, and extends out to the Surf Coast region, including the towns of Torquay and Jan Juc and the rural towns of Barrabool, Bellbrae, Connewarre, Gnarwarre, Modewarre, Moriac and Mount Moriac.

Once a relatively safe Liberal seat, the South Barwon district has become increasingly marginal in recent years. Labor were able to win the seat for the first time at the 2002 State Election and also successfully retained it in 2006, before the Liberal Party regained it in 2010.

Due to demographic changes, South Barwon represents the most likely gain for the Labor Party in 2018 and will be a key target for the party; who are banking on the profile of former Federal MP for Corangamite, Darren Cheeseman, to help them get over the line.

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal. 
Independent 2.4% (vs Nationals)

Located in northern Victoria, Shepparton includes the towns of Ardmona, Barmah, Congupna, Dookie, Katunga, Kialla, Mooroopna, Nathalia, Picola, Shepparton, Strathmerton, Tallygaroopna, Tatura and Toolamba.

The current incarnation of the Shepparton electorate was always a safe Nationals seat. However, in recent elections, third parties (particularly the Country Alliance) and independents posed an increasing threat to the Nationals hold on the seat. Suzanna Sheed won the seat at the 2014 State Election, ending the Nationals hold on the seat.

Most independents, once they gain a seat, who don't draw too much controversy tend to retain their seat for as long as they stand for re-election, and this is true particularly of independent MPs who hold seats in rural areas. Suzanna Sheed will very likely not only hold on, but increase her margin in the upcoming election.

 

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal.
Greens 2.4% (vs ALP)

The Seat of Melbourne currently consists of the suburbs of Carlton, North Carlton, Melbourne, East Melbourne, West Melbourne, North Melbourne, Parkville, Newmarket, Kensington and Flemington, and includes Melbourne University.

Once a staunchly working class area, it had, up until the 2014 State Election, always been held by Labor, usually by very large margins. The exception to this was a brief period in 1955 when then Labor MP Tom Hayes defected to the Democratic Labour Party, before being defeated by Labor challenger Arthur Clarey in that year's state election, returning the seat back to the Labor fold. 

The area constituting this electorate has undergone considerable gentrification in recent years. Since 2002, this has contributed to a declining Labor vote and a growth in the Greens vote, making the seat more marginal. At the 2014 State Election, Melbourne became the first Greens seat in the Victorian Legislative Assembly, with Greens challenger Ellen Sandell defeating Labor incumbent Jennifer Kanis.

Melbourne is a seat that it will be hard for the Greens to lose, and Ellen Sandell should also benefit from a new personal vote.

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal.
Labor 2.3%

Cranbourne is located in the south-east of Melbourne and includes the suburbs of Cranbourne, Carrum Downs, Langwarrin, Seaford, Skye, and Frankston North.

The district was created prior to the 1992 election, when it was gained by the Liberal Party - who would hold the seat until Labor's landslide victory at the 2002 state election. Labor have held Cranbourne since the 2002 election and it remains a marginal electorate.

The demographics of the electorate are what can be considered skilled working class, with trades workers constituting the majority of the workforce. Machinery operators, labourers and community workers are also over-represented compared to the state average. The electorate has large populations of Indians and Sri Lankins; with the aforementioned groups being over-represented in this electorate compared to the state average.

Although this is a marginal seat that has been held by the Liberal Party relatively recently, it was a seat that they weren't able to gain at the 2010 State Election; indicating that this seat has firmed up for Labor over recent elections.

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal.
Labor 2.2% 
(vs Greens)

The seat of Brunswick is located within the inner northern suburbs of Melbourne, and it includes the suburbs of Brunswick, Brunswick East, and Brunswick West, and parts of Coburg, Fitzroy North, Parkville and Pascoe Vale South.

Brunswick has existed in three different incarnations and during all three periods of existence, has always been retained and held by the Labor Party. It was held briefly, in 1955, by the Democratic Labour Party when sitting member Peter Randles split from Labor. The seat, however, was abolished leading up to that year's state election and would not come into existence again until 1976.

The current incarnation of Brunswick has existed since 2002. During this period, the seat has seen considerable gentrification but remains one of the strongest areas in Victoria for the political left; with an increasing Greens vote eroding Labor's primary vote, as well as their margin, over successive elections to date.

Brunswick is a top-tier target for the Greens and based on the margin as well as trends favouring the Greens in the inner suburbs of Melbourne, Labor may find it hard to hold on. However, recent results in the federal seat of Batman show that a Greens gain is by no means assured in the face of a strong Labor campaign targeting left-leaning voters and the Greens shouldn't take the seat for granted.

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




Marginal.
Labor 2.1%

Mordialloc is an electorate located on the eastern bayside of Melbourne. It includes the suburbs of Braeside, Dingley Village, Mordialloc and Parkdale; and parts of Cheltenham, Heatherton, Highett, Mentone and Springvale South.

The demographics of the electorate almost mirror the rest of Victoria; in terms of education, ethnicity and employment.

The electorate's voting patterns thus largely reflect the statewide trend, making the seat a marginal electorate that usually changes hands with a change of government.

 

 

 

 

Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll and post your predictions in the comments below.

Read the full electorate profile.




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